Little Movement in Spanish Election Polls

The Socialists are still in first place. The People’s Party continues to recover.

Pedro Sánchez
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez speaks at a congress of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party in Huesca, October 1 (PSOE/Eva Ercolanese)

There hasn’t been a lot of movement in the polls since Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez failed to form a government in September and early elections were called for November.

  • Support for Sánchez’ Socialist Party is virtually unchanged since the election in March, when it won almost 29 percent support.
  • The conservative People’s Party is recovering at the expense of the liberal Citizens and the far-right Vox. It got 17 percent in March, fell to 14 percent in May and is now at 21 percent.
  • The Citizens have been losing popularity for two years. In 2018, they briefly placed first, reaching as high as 27 percent. Now they are at 12 percent, below the far-left Podemos and only a few points ahead of Vox. Regular readers know who I blame: party leader Albert Rivera and his inability to decide if his priority is liberalizing Spain (which would argue for a coalition with the Socialists) or resisting Catalan independence (which would justify a pact with the right and far right).
  • The fact that Podemos now places third is hardly to the credit of its leader, Pablo Iglesias. I think he was right to press for a coalition with Sánchez, since supporting the Socialists from the outside didn’t help his party in the last election. But Sánchez refused and left-wing voters blame Iglesias. Podemos hasn’t polled above 15 percent for all of this year.
  • More evidence of Iglesias’ failure is the creation of new party, Más País. Led by his former deputy, Íñigo Errejón, it struggles to find a place for itself between the Socialists on the center-left and Podemos on the far left. It currently polls at 5 percent.
  • Vox has peaked. It is down from a high of 11-12 percent to 9 percent, where it has been since June.
  • Support for the Catalan independence parties is unchanged at 6 percent.