There hasn’t been a lot of movement in the polls since Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez failed to form a government in September and early elections were called for November.
- Support for Sánchez’ Socialist Party is virtually unchanged since the election in March, when it won almost 29 percent support.
- The conservative People’s Party is recovering at the expense of the liberal Citizens and the far-right Vox. It got 17 percent in March, fell to 14 percent in May and is now at 21 percent.
- The Citizens have been falling for two years. In 2018, they briefly placed first, reaching as high as 27 percent. Now they are at 12 percent, below the far-left Podemos and only a few points ahead of Vox. Regular readers will know who I blame: leader Albert Rivera and his inability to decide if his priority is liberalizing Spain (which would argue for a coalition with the Socialists) or resisting Catalan independence (which would justify a pact with the right and far right).
- The fact that Podemos now places third is hardly to the credit of its leader, Pablo Iglesias. I think he was right to press for a coalition with Sánchez, since supporting the Socialists from the outside didn’t help his party in the last election. But Sánchez refused and left-wing voters blame Iglesias. Podemos hasn’t polled above 15 percent for all of this year.
- More evidence of Iglesias’ failure is the creation of new party, Más País. Led by his former deputy, Íñigo Errejón, it struggles to find a place for itself between the Socialists on the center-left and Podemos on the far left. It currently polls at 5 percent.
- Vox has peaked. It is down from a high of 11-12 percent to 9 percent, where it has been since June.
- Support for the Catalan independence parties is unchanged at 6 percent.