America’s Republicans are hemorrhaging support among two of the constituencies that helped reelect Barack Obama in 2012: Hispanics and the young.
According to polling conducted by the Reuters news agency and Ipsos, the two groups are even less sympathetic to the right than they were three years ago:
- In 2012, less than 31 percent of Hispanics who were likely to vote in the presidential election said they affiliated with the Republican Party. This year, the figure is 26 percent.
- Among whites under the age of forty, there has been an even more dramatic shift. “In 2012, they were more likely to identify with the Republican Party by about 5 percentage points. In 2015, the advantage flipped: Young whites are now more likely to identify with the Democratic Party by about 8 percentage points.”
As a result, whereas Democrats made up nearly 45 percent of party-affiliated likely voters in 2012 against 39 percent Republicans, the figures this year are 46 and 37 percent, respectively.
That could make it even harder for Republicans to win back the presidency in 2016.