Local elections in the Netherlands on March 3 already forecast the tangled political landscape which the country now faces in the run-up to the parliamentary elections of June.
The Labor Party, which pulled out of the coalition with the christian-democrats of Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende because it wouldn’t consider a continued military presence in Afghanistan, prospered in the polls, if only slightly but no viable three-party majority has emerged as of yet. Party leader Wouter Bos announced his resignation this Friday, naming Amsterdam mayor Job Cohen his successor. Unlike Bos, Cohen is considered to be a credible candidate for prime minister, being more of a traditional socialist and able to regain support from low-income families.
After the parliamentary elections, scheduled for June 9, the participation of the Liberal Party will be pivotal. The liberals came to a goverment thrice with the christian democrats in the wake of the murder of right wing politician Pim Fortuyn in 2002. Their popularity has taken a beating since Geert Wilders left the party in 2004 to run on his own ticket. It is difficult to imagine a future government without them nevertheless.
Wilders appeals to voters with his asperations of Islam and the multicultural society. His Freedom Party specifically blames Labor for today’s immigration problems which seems to rule out a coalition between the two. But Wilders is set to lead the Netherlands’ second political faction in terms of size. In spite of left wing attempts to exclude him from power, the christian democrats, at least, are willing to work with him.
If Wilders won’t govern, the alternatives include a full left-wing coalition under Labor rule; a center right alliance of multiple parties likely dominated by liberals and christian democrats; and a center goverment of Labor and liberals, fused by the progressive D66 faction which picked up much momentum in the local elections of two weeks ago.
Labor so far has refused to commit to a red accord, wary that such a pledge would hurt its chances with moderate voters. It might even prefer to partake in a government with liberals and christian democrats. It has partnered with both before, if separately.
One way or another, the Liberal Party in all likelihood will have to be included and they are bound to demand a high price for their kingmaking. The party has been highly critical of the previous government, particularly of its response to the economic downturn. The liberals form the only faction in parliament that has proposed massive and specific budget cuts while they continue to champion the free market system. With the christian democrats, they scrapped regulation of business and privatized health care between 2002 and 2006. Whether smaller center parties, let alone Labor, will go along with such rigorous policies anew is doubtful. A minority government, deemed undesirable by most parties, may be possible although the country hasn’t had one since the end of World War II.
