Atlantic Sentinel

Tag: US Elections 2012

Presidential and congressional elections were held in the United States on November 6. Incumbent Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney. Control of Congress remained split between a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and a Republican majority in the Senate.

  • Electoral Fight of the Future: Go West, Young Man!

    Las Vegas Nevada
    Skyline of Las Vegas, Nevada (Shutterstock/Andrey Bayda)

    Often forgotten amid the larger, classic swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, the American West is finding itself in a new position of prominence in the 2012 election and will likely retain that prominence as the country’s demographics shift in the Democrats’ favor over the coming years.

    With the Midwest probably in President Barack Obama’s column and the entirety of the South probably in Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s (with the possible exception of Virginia), Tuesday’s election may come down to three states in the Rocky Mountains that all went for Obama in 2008, George W. Bush in 2004 and split between Bush and Al Gore in 2000.

    The region was uncompetitive for Democrats in 2000, with the exception of New Mexico which Al Gore won by a mere five hundred votes that year. In 2004, the region was one of John Kerry’s many “backup” paths to victory (besides Florida and Ohio) that didn’t pan out. In 2008’s election between Obama and John McCain, it didn’t make the difference — preelection polls weren’t close and the election was effectively decided well before results came in from the West.

    What will happen this time around? Recent history might offer a clue as to what we can expect — history as recent as the 2010 congressional elections. (more…)

  • Barack Obama Deserves Second Term

    Regardless of whether or not this presidential election is a referendum or a choice, President Barack Obama deserves to be reelected on both counts. On the economy and foreign affairs, the Democrat has shown himself to be a better candidate than any of Mitt Romney’s public personas.

    The first issue of Barack Obama’s presidency was his handling of the economic collapse which is also his strongest case for reelection. The crisis left a classic liquidity trap in which demand had dropped to very low levels and interest rates had already been lowered to the minimum. This required an immediate Keynesian approach.

    By passing the Recovery Act and injecting $787 billion into the American economy only three weeks after his inauguration, the president stopped the ongoing hemorrhaging and quickly stabilized the markets. Despite near unanimous Republican political stonewalling, the president got billions of dollars into green energy investment, health information technology, middle-class tax relief and more.

    Investigators found minimal fraud and waste and given the impact it had on the economy, both short and long-term, the spending in sum appears to have been worth it: The economy rebounded with the stimulus saving or creating around two and a half million jobs. The recovery only really slowed down once governors began to institute austerity at the state level and Congress refused to renew any form of stimulus because of the perceived failure of the first round as well as its large impact on the deficit.

    However, the Recovery Act was uncommonly large because the slump was too — and it turns out more massive than the stimulus. The oft cited “promise” that unemployment would be at 6 percent right now is a canard, citing a projection, not a promise, by the transition team based on the belief that gross domestic product loss in late 2008 was 5.4 percent. It turned out that the contraction rate was 8.9 percent — unheard of since the Great Depression. Thus, a larger stimulus was economically necessary, though politically impossible.

    Having no stimulus? That would have resulted in a Second Great Depression, permanently less revenue and a larger weight in the safety net — much worse for the deficit than temporary spending.

    We know this because countercyclical spending has been economic orthodoxy since the 1930s. Democratic and Republican presidents alike have always spent money in some form to juice a down economy. When they haven’t, it has stagnated. This creates a natural deficit but that’s okay — interest rates are low during liquidity traps and are historically so right now.

    (Given that the task of economic stimulus is evidently incomplete, pursuing it or not remains the choice for the future.)

    Other issues are dwarfed by the president’s averting of economic catastrophe, yet still have large importance — especially in contrast to the plans of Mitt Romney and the congressional Republicans. (more…)

  • Atlantic Sentinel Responds to Final Obama-Romney Debate

    Incumbent president Barack Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, debated foreign policy in Boca Raton, Florida tonight in what was their third and last televised debate before November’s election.

    The Atlantic Sentinel‘s Christopher Whyte said the debate was “not a blowout for either candidate.” Both held their positions well on a number of fronts, he said. (more…)

  • Atlantic Sentinel Responds to Second Obama-Romney Debate

    President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, met in Hempstead, New York on Tuesday night for their second televised debate before November’s election.

    The stakes were particularly high for the incumbent whose lackluster performance in the first debate in Colorado two weeks ago disappointed many Democrats. (more…)

  • Atlantic Sentinel Responds to First Obama-Romney Debate

    Democratic president Barack Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, met for their first in three televised debates in the city of Denver tonight, the capital of Colorado which is one of nine states that can sway November’s election in either candidate’s favor.

    The Atlantic Sentinel‘s Steve Keller said “this was a really wonky debate.”

    President Obama seemed to go in with an eye toward playing defense and Mitt Romney playing offense. Both did so effectively.

    Left-wingers were disappointed Obama didn’t “take it” to Romney and try to knock him out. Keller, however, wasn’t surprised Obama came across as more professorial. (more…)

  • The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of Mitt Romney’s Collapse

    A “convention bounce” isn’t news and it usually doesn’t last until November. Likewise, a week or so of lousy polls and bad news — even if it’s really, really bad news — doesn’t necessarily mean the end is nigh. Campaigns are about ups and downs. President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney should both expect highs and lows in the polls as election day draws nearer and so should each ticket’s supporters.

    But given the fundamentals of this campaign, the very fact that President Obama has pulled sharply ahead, even if only by a few points, is likely to keep him ahead. It will precipitate a series of reactions and missteps from Mitt Romney, allowing the Democrats to stick their convention bounce and ride on through to victory in November.

    In other words, the polls, usually a snapshot, are likely to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. (more…)

  • Obama Stays Above Political Fray Over Consulate Attack

    In an election campaign that is dominated by the economy, slow job growth and the nation’s fiscal crisis, this week’s attack on the American consulate in Benghazi put international affairs and national security back on the agenda, at least for a short while.

    Incumbent president Barack Obama is confronted with one of the most tragic diplomatic crises in recent American history as his ambassador to Libya and three more Americans were killed in a raid on the consulate building.

    Protests also erupted outside embassies in Egypt and Yemen.

    It is not uncommon for American diplomats to attract agitation. Locals who disagree with American foreign policy often take to the streets and protest in front of embassy grounds.

    What was different about this week’s unrest was their quick descent into chaos and violence. (more…)

  • Obama Puts Jerusalem Back in Democratic Party Platform

    Before he formally accepted his party’s presidential nomination on Thursday night, President Barack Obama had to step in to change part of the Democratic platform.

    At first glance, worrying about a few sentences in the foreign policy chapter of the document would seem out of the ordinary. Foreign policy has scantly been a major issue in the campaign. But the subject under the microscope was not about some marginal country but about the state of Israel, a country that administrations of both parties have pledged to support, work with and defend.

    After learning that the status of Jerusalem was omitted from the party platform, President Obama personally pushed to have the language changed. (more…)

  • Obama, Romney Don’t Mention the War

    Early last week, the Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan stepped on to the stage in the battleground state of New Hampshire to address supporters and persuade those undecided to back him in November. The scenery of the event was as typical as it gets in the heart of a heated presidential race: supporters clapped their hands and cheered while Romney criticized the incumbent, Barack Obama, for his poor economic record and lackluster leadership skills. But the entire campaign event seemed to change in an instant when an older men, presumably a veteran, asked a pointed and direct question about an issue neither candidate has talked about a lot during the campaign.

    The voter wasn’t concerned about job growth nor Romney’s plans to reform health care for American seniors. Rather, it was about the bad news that has been coming out of Afghanistan during the past two months. Nearly a dozen American soldiers have recently been killed by their Afghan counterparts and countless more in a combination of roadside attacks with improved explosive devices, helicopter malfunctions and suicide bombings.

    I want to know what you guys are going to do about Afghanistan. We’ve got those characters over there shooting our guys and our guys are coming home in body bags. So when you guys take over in Washington, what are you going to do about this damn mess in Afghanistan?

    It is a question that both Romney and Ryan were perhaps surprised to get. In a way, their surprise was understandable. Neither the president nor Mitt Romney has discussed the Afghan war, now the longest in American history, in any concrete and detailed way since the beginning of the election season. (more…)

  • Romney Offends Palestinians with “Culture” Remark

    The multiday trip was designed to be a smooth and easy way for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, to burnish his foreign policy credentials.

    Countless presidents have made a similar journey for a similar objective. In 2008, Barack Obama swept through Europe to demonstrate his popularity and competency to American voters in front of a foreign audience. Romney, a man who has not had to deal with foreign policy issues in past jobs, had the same thing in mind last week when he traveled to Britain, Israel and Poland, three strong American allies, to shake hands with dignitaries and shore up his support overseas.

    That trip, however, has been anything but easy for Romney and his campaign. A series of off the cuff remarks got the former governor in trouble in London when he openly questioned whether the British government and its people were ready to host the summer Olympic Games. The comment sparked an array of complaints and denunciations from British parliamentarians and Prime Minister David Cameron himself. The British press was especially hard on Romney, equating his concerns to a cheap shot at the nation’s ability to appreciate its month in the limelight. (more…)

  • India Should Prefer a Republican President

    The Indian foreign policy establishment is not very interested in the outcome of this year’s presidential election in the United States. This in contrast to 2004 when it preferred George W. Bush or 2008, when the entire world was caught up in the yearlong election drama.

    The reason is simple. India’s ruling center-left coalition appears to have reached a dead end and the foreign policy class is in the slumber. It should pay attention though. Barack Obama’s reelection could prove an annoyance to Indians if it is accompanied by a return of liberalism in American policy.

    The Democratic president has so far conducted himself largely as a Republican in the mold of George H.W. Bush on the world stage. Indians find comfort in this conservative posture. They are wary of liberals who seek to use America’s position as the preeminent power to change the world.

    They would never take this approach to China. Even the do-gooders recognize that there are limits to what they can accomplish. But with India, there are always issues to raise, ranging from Kashmir to human rights to the environment. This has been a trend among Democratic Party presidents whereas the Republicans tend to stand by India.

    As early as 1919, Woodrow Wilson failed to live up to his promise to support Indian independence. Harry Truman internationalized the Kashmir dispute at India’s expense. John F. Kennedy was reluctant to intervene when China invaded Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh in 1962. Lyndon B. Johnson didn’t support India during the 1965 war with Pakistan. Bill Clinton wouldn’t involve himself in the 1999 Kargil War.

    It was Republican Theodore Roosevelt who endorsed India’s bid for independence. Dwight D. Eisenhowever, another Republican, normalized relations with his 1958 visit to India. Ronald Reagan initiated technology cooperation and it was George W. Bush who signed the hallmark nuclear agreement of 2005.

    There have been two exceptions to the rule. Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt was tempted to condition his support for Great Britain during the Second World War on Indian independence while Republican Richard Nixon menaced India during the Bangladesh Liberation War by dispatching an aircraft carrier to the Bay of Bengal and allying himself with Pakistan.

    Still, given this recent history, it’s important for India to always be skeptical when champions of liberal value such as Barack Obama occupy the White House and when the liberal establishment in the Democratic Party holds sway in the Congress and State Department.

    Indian foreign policymakers need to understand that a Republican president would likely be far more beneficial to them. A Republican would more actively seek to counter China’s rise in Asia through a balance of power. This is what George W. Bush did during his eight years in office.

    India is also preparing for elections. In 2014, if the right-wing nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party comes to power, New Delhi could adopt a more assertive stance on the world stage and expect the United States to do the same. Specifically, the conservatives would like to see a more activist containment of China and the dismantling of Pakistan’s terrorist infrastructure. A conservative administration in the United States would surely be more cooperative.

  • The World Is Waiting for President Huntsman

    Among the Republicans contesting their party’s presidential nomination this year, there is only one man whom the world would definitely prefer over Barack Obama.

    The world may be a bystander in America’s presidential election, but it watches carefully. Americans in November elect the most powerful man on the planet and conservative primary voters, starting this January, may be choosing that man.

    Although we recognize that their economic predicament takes precedence over questions of foreign and trade policy, in today’s global society, where the collapse of a single American investment bank can bring down the whole of the developed world’s economy, the three are in fact intertwined.

    So we have a stake in the matter. Especially at a time of economic calamity, Americans need a president who recognizes that access and openness to investment and trade is of paramount importance. There can be no recovery, in America or elsewhere, if nations slide into protectionism; if “Made in America” is not an emblem of pride and of quality but a harbinger of nationalist revival and an attempt to reverse the trend of globalization.

    One nation’s growth cannot come at the expense of another. Nor can there be an industrial renaissance in the United States if it cannot afford anymore to champion freedom and opportunity abroad. (more…)

  • Barack Obama, Down But Not Out

    When Barack Obama began his campaign for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in early 2007, there weren’t many in the United States who put their money on him. The junior senator from Illinois didn’t just beat stalwarts in his own party however but resoundingly won the general election one year later.

    Three years after that phenomenal success, political commentators have virtually written the president off. They’re busy watching the Republican debates and predicting which of the opposition candidates might really “change” America and restore hope to the nation. 24/7 cable news and a hyper active blogosphere have left the pundit class very impatient indeed.

    When he ran for office, Obama promises to end the war in Iraq but continue the War on Terror. He surged troops in Afghanistan and terrorist leader Osama bin Laden was captured and killed under his watch. (more…)

  • Barack Obama at a Crossroads

    British wartime Prime Minister Winston Churchill once said, “A politician thinks about the next election whereas a statesman thinks about the next generation.” The 44th president of the United States may aspire to statesmanship but he still needs to think about his reelection in November 2012.

    There is no doubt that Barack Obama is a clever politician. If he weren’t, he would have been defeated by Hillary Clinton during the Democratic Party primaries two years ago. Obama somehow managed to sway the crowds with his charisma and physical presence, winning his party’s nomination before winning the presidency in November 2008.

    Much has changed since. Obama entered the 2008 race with a thin résumé compared to his Democratic rivals during the primaries and his Republican rival John McCain during the general election. That résumé has thickened considerably but not necessarily improved. The United States are still struggling to get out of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq; the economy remains in recession and there is a great upsurge in the Middle East. (more…)

  • Mitch Daniels, Mike Huckabee Talk 2012

    Two possible Republican presidential contenders for 2012, Indiana governor Mitch Daniels and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, appeared on Fox News Sunday this weekend.

    Daniels, who as governor has managed to avert the sort of fiscal catastrophe looming that is in many other states, is in the middle of a stalled legislative session as many Indiana Democrats are in Illinois to avoid having to vote on public-sector reforms.

    The opposition originally left the state in protest of a bill that would make Indiana a “right to work” state, allowing employees to opt out of joining a labor union if there is one in their field of work. That bill is dead now but the Democrats have yet to return, citing eleven more bills that they won’t vote on.

    Daniels refused to negotiate as long as the Democrats were out of the state. “While they are subverting the democratic process, there is nothing to talk about,” he said, adding: “they ran off to Illinois ostensibly over the right to work bill. But as soon as they got what they wanted there, they issued an ultimatum from a hot tub over there with about ten more items.”

    The issue in Indiana is rather a different one from Governor Scott Walker’s legislative effort in Wisconsin. Democratic lawmakers there have also fled the state while unions protest a measure that would strip them of their collective bargaining right. Across the country, Republican governors have taken on public-sector unions which often extract far more generous pay and benefits for their members than workers in the private sector enjoy.

    Daniels effectively undercut public-sector unions’ ability to collectively bargain six years ago and has since worked to balance his state’s budget. Since 2004, the 49 other states in the nation increased their debt levels by an average of 40 percent. Indiana has paid down its debt by 40 percent and is one of only nine states to have the highest rating from all three rating agencies. Indiana’s business climate has improved significantly as a result of the governor’s tax cuts. The state has added jobs at twice the national pace.

    The governor has been urged by many conservatives to seek his party’s presidential nomination but Daniels told Fox that he hadn’t made a decision yet. According to The New York Times‘ David Brooks, this is the Republican Party’s quandary. “The man who would be the party’s strongest candidate for the presidency is seriously thinking about not running.”

    Daniels might not match Barack Obama in grace — “If it comes down to height and hair, I probably wouldn’t do very well,” he told Fox — but could on substance, according to Brooks. “They could have a great and clarifying debate: What exactly are the paramount problems facing the country? What is government’s role in solving them?”

    At the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington this month, Daniels characterized America’s national debt as a “new red menace,” urging Republicans to rally voters under the banner of fiscal conservatism despite policy differences they might have with independents.

    While the costs of federal entitlement and health-care programs are skyrocketing, few politicians have volunteered concrete policy solutions but Daniels has. When asked what he would do about Social Security, the governor said that he would bifurcate it, raise the age in which people get it, and if someone has a better idea he’d like to hear it. Medicare would be turned into a voucher program.

    Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee may be a more likely contender for the presidency yet he wrote in his latest book, A Simple Government, that he hated the process of campaigning. On Sunday he clarified that remark. “I love campaigning,” he said. “I don’t enjoy what I would call the peripheral of it, which is the part you dread. And the peripheral is you spend so much of your time defending rather than actually going out and talking about issues that you think would make America a great country.”

    Huckabee, who attempted to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, harshly criticized Barack Obama in his book, writing, “Just about everything he thinks is good for America is actually bad for our present and worse for our future.”

    On Fox News Sunday, he added that the accumulation of debt that has occurred under this administration is horrifying and hampering growth. “I mean, the first rule is, if you’re in a hole, quit digging. If you’re a family and you just lost your job and you’re broke, you don’t go out and go on a spending spree. You start figuring out how to cut your expenses.”

    Chris Wallace asked Huckabee about his apparent breach of Ronald Reagan’s “eleventh commandment” which told Republicans not to speak ill of fellow party members. Huckabee has criticized the health-care reform scheme which Mitt Romney enacted as governor of Massachusetts, calling it “socialized medicine.”

    Huckabee noted that there’s a difference “in Ronald Reagan saying don’t speak ill of another Republican and don’t evaluate what another Republican’s proposals are” before urging Romney to distance himself from health-care reform. “I don’t have a problem with a governor in any state taking risk, trying something bold,” said Huckabee. “But if it doesn’t work, for heaven’s sakes, let’s not put it in all fifty states.”

    Asked whether he’s running for president, Huckabee said that he’s waiting to see how people respond to his book. “This book is my message. This book is what I stand for and what I believe. I want people to say, you know what, that guy has got ideas we can live with. Or maybe they’re going to say this guy is a crazy fool.”