A century ago, a British member of Parliament and geographer, Halford Mackinder, wrote one of the famous books of geopolitics, Democratic Ideals and Reality. The book discussed the tension between what nations want (“democratic ideals”) and what they often get (geographic “reality”).
That tension seems especially topical this week. (more…)
America is out of the environmental protection businesses; so says the haughty God-Emperor Donald Trump, whose word is apparently law.
Too bad even god-emperors cannot change facts. Too bad, especially, for the billions who are almost certain to be disrupted, displaced and decimated by the looming geopolitical effects of climate change.
That basic truth is denied heartily by many who have incentive to play games for short-term gain. These are old-school industrial concerns, for whom environmental regulation hammers a bottom line; alt-right, alt-truthers, for whom simple science is a threat to their incoherent worldview; and shattered working classes, seeking a simple scapegoat for the complicated story of their economic dissolution and disenfranchisement.
As written in Salon:
The executive order is another example of the Trump Administration’s ignoring basic facts in service of a right-wing ideology rooted mostly in a blind, irrational hatred of Obama.
Unfortunately for Trump, undoing Obama’s climate legacy will require more than the stroke of a pen.
The science of climate change is so basic, however, that it is shaping geopolitical forces on a global scale. Whether those forces will overcome the denialists remains to be seen.
Climate change will be the human event of the twenty-first century. It will be a shaping of our species unlike anything since the end of the last Ice Age. To presume that nation states, or their successors, will somehow carry on blithely in spite of it is naive in the extreme. (more…)
There are no famines anymore, unless people want them.
South Sudan is starving. As reported by Foreign Policy, the world’s newest country is also one of the world’s hungriest:
On February 20, the United Nations declared a famine in parts of the country, saying that some have already died from hunger and another 100,000 people are on the brink of starvation. One million more are headed toward the same fate. “Our worst fears have been realized,” Serge Tissot, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s representative in South Sudan, said in a news release.
In an age where Hobbsian scarcity has been nearly conquered, it is discomforting in the extreme to see starving children on HD video. Humans produce some 17 percent more food per person than thirty years ago, yet that means little to the South Sudanese.
In the cruelties of its civil war, there are key geopolitical understandings to be had in South Sudan. Why do some countries starve? How can one African country peacefully reject a dictator while another pits two democratically elected leaders into armed conflict? How much blame does the rest of the world deserve and what does this say about the future of our species? (more…)
“West Africa” should really only be a geographical label, not a geopolitical one. It is a place riddled with ethnicities overlapping tribes cut by religion bisected by language. There is nothing simple about West Africa except in the minds of long-dead imperial geographers.
That hasn’t stopped Nigeria from deciding to reorder the whole region to its liking. But for once in geopolitics, this reordering has not only been largely successful but is also incrementally pushing West Africa to better governance and stronger states.
And Abuja just had a stunning success in the Gambia, a tiny river-republic that just tried and failed to hold onto the bad old ways of West African politics. (more…)
Africa tends to provoke imagines of civil war, despots and starving children in the West. Are these images still applicable, if they ever were, to such a vast continent?
While Europe is still dealing with the effects of a sovereign debt crisis and China is trying to to keep its economy under control, Africa has grown at an annual rate of 4.8 percent over the last five years, a period that included the trauma of the global financial crisis. That means it has outperformed other developing regions — like Latin America, for example, at 3.3 percent. Five of the ten fastest growing economies in the world last year were African — Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Niger and Sierra Leone.
So do the images that we are used to seeing on our television screens still represent the whole of Africa? In many ways, yes, they are and likely will for some time. A religious war looms in Nigeria, South Africa is struggling with internal strife, Somalia, once the poster child of state failure, while making gains, is still not functioning. In North Africa, countries from Egypt to Libya are coping with the aftermaths of “Arab Spring” uprisings that destabilized and toppled governments. (more…)
There are a number of phenomena which currently define African politics and must be understood before commenting on the geopolitical evolution of today’s central Africa.
One is that of “extraversion.” Jean-François Bayart, a French professor in African politics, coined the phrase to describe the endemic and domestic subversion of the state apparatus in sub-Saharan Africa.
Inherited from the Europeans, the African state system is not adapted to the reality on the ground. Moreover, it exists within artificial borders. Therefore local elites quickly pervert the functions of the state with clientelistic behaviors and policies so as to protect first and foremost the interests of their respective clan, tribe, ethnic or religious group. Government agencies fall under the aegis of a specific group with the chief purpose of redistributing tax revenues among the most important political stakeholders in a certain territory. Liberal democratic values such as term of office, rule of law and public service rest in the minds of a few liberal and educated elites who rarely happen to lead a specific political faction. The direct consequence is an invariable degradation of democracy as well as a race for power. Ubiquitous corruption and civil strife follow. (more…)
Paris’ gunships struck Islamist targets in the northern Malian town of Kona on Friday in support of a combined ground intervention by African troops from the Economic Community of West African States. French defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian reported that during the operation, the French military suffered one casualty.
On the works for months, the intervention mandated by United Nations Security Council Resolution 2085 is meant to put an end to the swift takeover of northern Mali that Tuareg and Islamist groups undertook, in the process causing the political collapse of the central government through a military coup.
Instability in the Sahel has heightened since last year’s collapse of Muammar al-Gaddafi’s regime in Libya during a popular uprising that was supported by NATO air and naval forces. The “Arab Spring” in Libya caused a considerable power vacuum which brought political disunity along that country’s Mediterranean coast, loss of control over southern Libya and significant advanced weaponry in the hands of smugglers who have been able to export it to such conflict areas as Gaza and Syria. (more…)
While the attention of Arab and Western media was largely focused on the historic victory of the Muslim Brotherhood’s presidential candidate in Egypt, street protests of a scale not witnessed for two decades continued into their second week in Khartoum and other major Sudanese cities. There are also protests in Gabon and Togo while the upcoming elections in Kenya are anticipated with anxiety.
Africa tends to be viewed through a prism of disease, starvation, violence and, most of all, corruption. When the “Arab Spring” erupted in late 2010, it was generally seen as a Middle Eastern phenomenon rather than an African one, even if its main protagonists were all located on African soil. However, while events to the northeast of Tunisia have dominated the news coverage, events to the south have been no less tumultuous.
At the same time, a perceived “African spring” is probably more a Western anticipation and less an African reality. This is what the cases of Kenya and Sudan show to us. (more…)
The current geopolitical landscape in Africa represents an unique opportunity for occupying the power vacuum that will be created as Western nations reduce their footprint abroad. China will be best placed to seize this opportunity and has already been aggressively stepping up its involvement in Africa.
Domestically, there is a sentiment in India that it is not doing enough to compete with China in Africa because the Indian economy is sensitive to oil prices, which notably affect the prices of food. India will have to do more if it wants to pole vault to superpower status by riding on the African wave.
Forming an alliance with other nations would enable India to compete seriously with China’s spending power, value neutral approach and lack of domestic opposition. India could team up with Brazil and South Africa by expanding the ambit of the India Brazil South Africa Dialogue Forum or with the United States in recognition of India’s democratic credentials. (more…)
Africa lacks electricity and its future growth hinges on developing a steady supply. A Chinese led boom in hydroelectric infrastructure investment is reinvigorating one of the continent’s least utilized resources which runs now at roughly 5 percent of potential.
Current projects, such as the Gibe III in Ethiopia, the Kajbar in Sudan, and the Bui dam in Ghana are all much needed additions to Africa’s power sector. These dams range in size and power either a small portion of the country or entire regions of Africa.
Many of the current dams were built in the 1960s and 1970s and are no longer working at full capacity. Inga I and Inga II in the Democratic Republic of Congo are prime examples with production at roughly 25 percent of total capacity. Decades of poor maintenance and conflict that saw power lines cut have left the continent’s energy sector in a feeble state.
China is currently driving this infrastructure development with nearly $10 billion in hydropower projects. Chinese financing has proven ideal for many African countries because deals can be made quicker with less red tape, no political strings attached and engineering and construction knowhow is provided. All in all, these projects are a win-win for all involved. China essentially pays itself to build these projects and Africa gets the electricity it needs to fuel continued growth.
Although China is an important figure both in terms of financing and construction, other players are jumping into these projects as well. Ethiopia is the continent’s second largest potential producer of hydroelectric power behind the Congo. The construction of the 1870 MW Gibe III is an important project there but the construction of the Grand Millenium Dam even more so with an estimated capacity of 5250 MW. Financing for the $4.8 billion project is unclear but reports have the Chinese contributing $1.8 billion and construction will handled by Italy’s Salini Costruttori.
These larger dams have the ability to increase regional stability and integration. Growth in African countries has been hindered by a lack of electricity and the prospect of a steady supply is bringing leaders together.
The biggest of these dams is the Grand Inga dam in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The project has an estimated capacity of 40,000 MW and the potential to power more than five hundred million people across Africa. The world’s current largest dam, the Three Gorges Dam in China, has a capacity of 22,400 MW and Brazil’s Itaipu is the second largest with a capacity of 14,000 MW. The entire hyrdopower potential in the DRC is estimated at 100,000 MW.
South Africa and the Congo recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding that looks to finally move this stalled project forward. The project has been in the planning and negotiation stages for several years and was headed by the regional Western Power Corridor (Westcor) under the Southern Africa Development Community.
Westcor’s focus was mainly on development of the 5,000 MW Inga III project, seen as a first step toward the Grand Inga, but planning and construction have been delayed by disputes from community members who have been excluded from the project.
Westcor was comprised of the DRC’s Société Nationale d’Électricité Société, Angola’s ENE, Namibia’s NamPower, the Botswana Power Corporation and South Africa’s Eskom.
The signing of the memorandum comes on the heels of the decision to dissolve Westcor in favor of a more regionally inclusive structure that is even looking to bring in its North African neighbors to the project. The agreement is expected to produce a legally binding treaty within the next few months to solidify a framework for financing and implementation of the project. Even though many of these dams will not come online for some time, Africa’s future gets brighter with each one.
When the most feared Islamist insurgent group in Somalia withdrew from its bases in Mogadishu after a three year occupation of most of the city, commanders of the African Union’s peacekeeping force AMISOM and Somali government leaders boasted about the group’s sudden decline in the country. Before the withdrawal, Al Shabaab, as the Islamist group is known, had already suffered a series of military defeats in the capital city. A far better equipped AMISOM force, with Ugandan and Burundian troops in the lead, managed to get themselves together and retake some of Mogadishu’s important commercial districts.
After the retreat from Mogadishu, optimistic Somali parliamentarians predicted that Al Shabaab was all but finished. At the time, they had a point — the organization is hated by most Somalis, who see the group as a main contributor to the deadly famine that is still claiming the lives of their family members and friends. (more…)
WikiLeaks has successfully created a public online forum that broadcasts normally secretive communications to an enormous audience. Its most recent attacks on the American government and military have brought widespread condemnation from officials, diplomats and civilian experts. It remains to be seen whether this public shaming will create more transparent government or just encourage diplomats to be increasingly secretive. But there is one industry that deserves transparency, and could benefit from a good calling out — manufacturing that depends on conflict minerals, especially those mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
After the release of 250,000 classified State Department cables, WikiLeaks has been under attack from all quarters — from Amazon, Visa, and PayPal to the Swedish, British, and American governments. Many believe the charges against the public face of WikiLeaks, Julian Assange, are part of an American led campaign to silence his embarrassing whistleblowing activities.
But Assange’s tactics have created a new atmosphere of wariness in government, international business and the military. Diplomats and executives alike are realizing their secrets might leak out to global condemnation.
This is not quite the case for those who operate in the murky business of conflict minerals like coltan, cobalt, tantalum, tin, even gold. The original source of these minerals, as well as the horrifying working conditions for miners, often goes unpublished and unpunished. Some international businesses are engaged in this system, intentionally or unintentionally. Others are part of a trend to increase transparency in the supply chain. Despite this, shady businessmen and militia leaders in the Congo, Rwanda and Burundi disguise the source of many resources extracted from the eastern part of the country. They have been doing this for many years. The profits almost always find their way to the pockets of warlords and militia leaders, exacerbating conflict and human rights abuses. Once in the market, consumers and retailers are unable (or unwilling) to trace the source of the materials in their products.
Enter WikiLeaks. Assange may have set out to bring down “big government” but his project could also serve to bring accountability into a different opaque system. WikiLeaks is the perfect forum for investigating and publicizing the international trade in conflict minerals.
They have the world’s attention. The governments of the Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, the European Union, as well as companies including Tradamet and Traxys in Belgium, Afrimex and Amalgamated Metal Corporation in England and the Thailand Smelting and Refining Corporation, are all at fault. WikiLeaks should call them out.
As the transparency organization Global Witness said in a 2008 report (PDF), “Economic actors are turning a blind eye to the impact of their trade. They continue to plead ignorance as to the origin of their supplies and hide behind a multitude of other excuses” for failing to stem the flow of conflict minerals. Other organizations, like Human Rights Watch and the Natural Resources Defense Council, are also engaged in this kind of research. However, their reports generate little enthusiasm for increased regulation on a global scale. Profits from conflict minerals continue to fuel atrocities in the Congo and elsewhere.
A report (PDF) in April by the dispute resolution organization RESOLVE highlights the hurdles faced by responsible companies and governments to stop the militarization of mining in the Congo.
Minerals originating in conflict regions can end up in electronics and many other products such as jewelry, airplanes, and automobiles. […] Companies face significant challenges due to a lack of transparency and complex structure and relationships in particular metals supply chains.
But still, the report asserts, “Companies, nongovernmental organizations, and agencies are working to address environmental impacts, labor rights, health and safety, displacement and resettlement, and other social and sustainability issues throughout the supply chain.”
This is undoubtedly true, and can be seen in the cooperation of a huge number of governments, international businesses and civil organizations at the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. But the success of WikiLeaks in drawing global attention to vast amounts of secretive communication presents an opportunity for finally ending the trade of conflict minerals. The threat of public shaming has already led to (small) changes in the way the United States conduct diplomacy abroad. What if that happened to the intricate and secretive supply chain of conflict minerals?
The problem is that the global trade in conflict minerals is more difficult to uncover than a few American diplomatic cables. Warlords from the Forces Démocratiques pour la Libération du Rwanda and the Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo (also known as the Conglolese National Army), as well as their business associates in Rwanda and Burundi, likely avoid paper trails and deal off the books precisely to avoid attention that might disrupt their operations. But international companies like the ones above are sure to have records on the source of their minerals — if not the actual mine then perhaps one of the comptoirs, the minerals trading houses in Goma and Bukavu in the eastern Congo. Perhaps one of their employees is unhappy with the moral standards of his company and has access to a thumb drive.
The United States government recently introduced legislation aimed at stemming the flow of conflict minerals from the Congo to the international market. The EU is considering a similar law. But the new whistleblowing culture founded by WikiLeaks can do more. A very public and very embarrassing information dump that links international companies based in Europe, Asia or the United States to conflict minerals coming out of the Congo would go a long way toward pushing through effective, globally enforceable legislation. And it would even brighten WikiLeaks’ image.
While both China and India are attempting to extend their sphere of influence into Africa, Beijing is clearly ahead of New Delhi, not just because it’s economically superior rather because it has pursued an astute realpolitik in its foreign relations.
Economically, China does have a significant edge with trade relations with different African countries set to top $100 billion this year compared with about a third of that between India and Africa in 2009.
Part of the reason for India’s falling behind is its reactive nature to events unfolding nearby whereas China has been proactive abroad. Since 2000 China has attended regular summits of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation as have numerous African heads of state. India has tried to do the same thing but the only India-Africa Forum Summit to date, in April 2008, saw just fourteen African countries attend. (more…)
