American president Donald Trump’s advisors have floated the possibility of what they call a “bloody nose” attack on North Korea.
The Wall Street Journal reports that officials are “quietly debating whether it’s possible to mount a limited military strike against North Korean sites without igniting an all-out war on the Korean Peninsula.”
Experts doubt it. (more…)
American president Donald Trump appears to have changed his mind about a trade deal with South Korea.
As recently as a month ago, there were reports Trump was on the verge of withdrawing from the agreement.
Now American and Korean trade negotiators have agreed to amend the treaty in order to make it “fair” and “reciprocal”.
I doubt changes will really make the pact fairer and not more favorable to the United States. But that would still be better than canceling it. (more…)
Various American media report this weekend that President Donald Trump is thinking of canceling a trade agreement with South Korea.
This may be bluster: an attempt to force the South Koreans to make concessions. It’s the way Trump “negotiates”.
But if he makes good on this threat, it would be another self-inflicted wound for American commerce and a setback for America’s strategy in East Asia. (more…)
The Korean War, fought from 1950-53, was a result of two earlier wars in the 1940s: the American-Japanese War, which ended with the destruction and occupation of Japan in 1945, and the Chinese Civil War, which ended in a Communist victory (and Nationalist retreat to Taiwan) in 1950.
With the Communists and Americans as the only powers in East Asia following these wars, the Korean Peninsula was split in two, each side taking a piece for itself.
When the United States triumphed over the Soviet Union around 1990, many expected the North Koreans to fix their broken ties with South Korea. That this did not occur was partly the result of inertia, partly the result of Kim Il-sung’s living until 1994 and partly the result of the 1997 East Asian financial crisis, which kept the South Koreans too poor to want to bear the cost of investing in North Korean infrastructure or labor.
It was also partly the result of a miscalculation on behalf of North Korea in 1987, 24 months before the Berlin Wall came down. Seeking to ruin the South’s first-ever Olympics in 1988, the North blew up a commercial airplane. It was by far the deadliest attack on the South since the armistice began in 1953. South Korea’s anger and mistrust of North Korea as a result of this deed persisted during the 90s. (more…)
North Korea is known for its exaggerated and bellicose proclamations against South Korea. Recently, it declared that strikes “without warning” would occur if protests in Seoul marking the anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il continued. But the recent execution of Kim Jong-un’s uncle, Jang Sung-taek, demonstrates a far deeper issue that North Korea wants contained: the internal desire for reform or revolution. If South Korea reflects on its previously successful and not so successful engagements with North Korea and learns from them, it is possible for a reunification or positive reform to eventually occur without war or destruction.
Despite losing many of its allies and supporters following the Cold War, North Korea has persisted in rebelling against international etiquette and refuses to collapse. South Korea is experienced in the rogue state’s belligerent attitude and has actively spent the last fifteen years dedicating policy experts and analysts to the task of avoiding war and establishing a peacefully feasible reunification. Some have been historically progressive whereas others have led to armed confrontation. These precedential dealings are the best platform to successfully move forward regarding a rogue state that cannot be understood through standard rational analysis. (more…)
North Korea, poor, malnourished, authoritarian, with supposed nuclear capabilities and a new crowned boy leader, is wildly different from its cousin beneath the 38h parallel. There they grow four inches taller, are workaholics, cyber obsessed users of democracy who lay claim to some of the most successful companies in the world such as Hyundai, LG and Samsung.
There are always rumors flying about over whether the two will take the same path as East and West Germany did even when they are busy trying to slay each other’s citizens, whether through sinking ships or the shelling of South Korean islands. Many believe that the economic cost of reunification to South Korea and the loss of Chinese influence in the North mean that it will not happen. But if it does, there’s some reason to be optimistic.
In 1960, South Korea was a starveling with a per capita annual income of $80. Since then, “The miracle on the Han River” has boasted the world’s most explosive economy: 8.7 percent annual growth through 1990 transformed it from an agricultural nothing into techno-metro sophisticate.
Just think what all those comparative undereducated North Koreans could do to the country. Goldman Sachs projects that, in an ideal scenario, the gross domestic product of a united Korea would overtake that of Japan and other highly industrialized economies in thirty to forty years — if North Korea’s full growth potential were tapped. (more…)
South Korea’s conservatives are the projected winners in Wednesday’s election. With 75 percent of the votes counted, Park Geun-hye is set to become the country’s first female president.
The incumbent, Lee Myung-bak, served his mandated five year term, having been elected in 2007.
Voter turnout of 75.8 percent was the highest in a decade, according to the National Election Commission. More than 37 million voters braved the cold weather and long lines at polling stations in order to cast their ballots.
The race between Park, from the ruling Saenuri Party, and Moon Jae-in, of the main opposition Democratic Union Party, had been a dead heat with pollsters unable to project a clear winner in the final days of the campaign. (more…)
The election for the presidency of South Korea crystallized over the weekend as a popular independent candidate abandoned his bid and instead endorsed the liberal challenger from the main opposition party.
With the two day official registration period for the candidates beginning on Sunday and the campaigns kicking off on Tuesday, in just 22 days South Koreans will go to the polls to elect their next president.
The election comes against the backdrop of slowing economic growth worldwide that threatens South Korea’s vital export markets, relations with Japan souring over an island dispute and ongoing tension with North Korea over its nuclear program. (more…)
Tensions between China and Japan have flared up again after heavily publicized political stunts by nationalists over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea that both countries lay claim to.
The islands, known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan, continue to elicit strident nationalism among their respective populations. But these episodes are just the latest in a series of tit for tat actions across Asia that is increasing the chance of events spinning out of control and resulting in a regional conflagration. (more…)
On Friday, Japan recalled its ambassador to South Korea after President Lee Myung-bak made an unprecedented visit by a sitting president to disputed islands in the Sea of Japan. The rocky outcrop of islands, known as Dokdo in Korea and Takeshima in Japan, are claimed as sovereign territory by both governments and is believed to contain vast deposits of natural resources.
President Lee landed on one of the Dokdo islands by helicopter and stayed there for a little over an hour to eat pizza and chicken with South Korean policeman stationed in the territory.
The visit was apparently driven by domestic public opinion as the Lee Administration has been grappling with corruption scandals and accusations from the political opposition of being too pro-Japanese. (more…)
For more than a decade, conventional wisdom has held that North Korea could subject the South Korean capital of Seoul to devastating artillery attack.
With a greater metropolitan population of 24 million, Seoul has the largest population density of all the OECD countries, eight times more dense than New York City and three times more dense than Tokyo and Yokohama.
Aimed at Seoul, North Korea’s prodigious amount of artillery, particularly its 170mm Koksan guns and 240mm multiple rocket launchers, could kill “millions of people” in the event of war on the Korean Peninsula.
The “sea of fire” scenario first surfaced after the Clinton Administration decided not to attack North Korean nuclear facilities in 1994. Coincidence? Maybe, but since then it’s been used to trump discussion of any military action against North Korea, for whatever reason.
Uncertainty about how military action would play out, as well as the North’s unpredictability, means that virtually anything anyone proposed risked the “sea of Fire.” This haunting scenario has played a role in how policymakers and wonks view engagement with the North.
Is North Korea unpredictable? Yes. Does it have an enormous amount of artillery? Yes. Are many of the artillery pieces in cover? Yes? Could an artillery attack on Seoul kill “millions”? Probably not. (more…)
On Monday, South Korean president Lee Myung-bak visited Burma and promised to extend loans and grants to the poverty stricken country.
The surprise visit came as Japan and South Korea have stepped up their diplomatic engagement in Southeast Asia over the last month, which, in turn, comes on the heels of closer engagement by the United States since 2009.
This stems not only from a desire to gain access to the region’s natural resources but more importantly, to bolster their soft power in the Mekong region, an area that is becoming increasingly important as concerns persist about Chinese foreign policy amid the rapid modernization of the People’s Liberation Army. However, while the Mekong countries are interested in the economic and political benefits from closer relations with the United States, they are mindful of the risk of antagonizing China. (more…)
With South Korea having cut ties to Iranian petrochemical and oil imports after American pressure, it was a forgone conclusion that Seoul would be looking for new suppliers to fill the resulting void.
South Korean president Lee Myung-bak toured the Middle East last week, including stops in both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in hope of brokering agreements to alleviate that recent loss of Iranian crude oil and petrochemical exports, as well as to increase South Korean defense exports to the region.
The trip shapep up to be a successful one for President Lee.
South Korea and Saudi Arabia agreed Wednesday to significantly bolster their defense cooperation to elevate relations in noneconomic sectors to match those of their prospering business ties, an official said Wednesday.
A defense cooperation pact could be signed if and when the Saudi minister visits Seoul, Choe said. If Salman is unable to pay a visit to Seoul, South Korea’s defense minister Kim Kwan-jin will visit Riyadh for talks, the official said.
“The focus of this visit is to lift cooperation in noneconomic areas to the level of the economic sector,” the press secretary said. “What is important is that the two sides agreed to elevate defense cooperation as well to match such a level.”
Choe declined to offer specifics on cooperation in the defense industry but sources said the two sides have been in talks on weapons projects, such as exporting ammunition and howitzers to the Middle Eastern nation.
While howitzers and ammunition aren’t big ticket items in the grand scheme of the $3 billion dollars in arms sales that South Korea is hoping to export in 2012, President Lee headed home with both a pledge from the Saudi government of a secure oil supply and a foot in the door to new venues for South Korean arms exports. His visit has to be considered something of a great success.
It will be interesting to watch South Korea venture further into the region, how they handle the many layered politics of the Middle East, and their ability to balance their growing relationship with Israel and their blossoming ties with other surrounding Middle Eastern nations. It will also be worth noting how far Seoul dives into the region with or without the assistance of the United States, though one can imagine that the ROK won’t be selling arms to states that lack American approval.
Worth watching will also be how these international deals affect President Lee’s popularity in Seoul during his final year in office and the ramifications these developments will have for his party in the coming 2012 elections.
This story first appeared at Asia Security Watch, February 9, 2012.
For the second time in as many weeks, American officials attempted to sway South Korea’s stance on trade with Iran. Last week in Seoul, South Korea, Robert Einhorn, the US special advisor on nonproliferation and arms control, made it clear that the United States hoped to see South Korea cut its petrochemical imports with the Middle Eastern nation, rallying them to consider an eventual reduction in their Iranian crude oil dependency, stopping short of a full recommendation:
“As production capacity increases, it would be possible for countries to reduce their purchases of Iranian crude and to make up the shortfall by acquiring from other countries,” Mr Einhorn said at a news conference. “But we’re very conscious of the energy security needs of countries like South Korea and we don’t want to interfere with those needs.”
Mr Einhorn’s words come only a few weeks after Wendy Sherman, US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs and Albright/Clinton protégée/advisor, prodded similar action from the South Korean nation.
South Korea imported 350 million dollars of Iranian petrochemicals (2 percent of its total petrochem imports) and exported 450 million dollars of their own to Iran last year. A far higher 10 percent of South Korea’s crude oil comes for Iran.
The recommendations by Einhorn and Sherman follow an all out diplomatic assault by the US State Department in recent weeks to shore up its Asian allies and freeze out its regional enemies, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent trip to Burma, which promised improved ties with the repressive nation in exchange for concessions in reducing their North Korean weapons imports.
This author balks slightly on American diplomats’ heavy handed diplomacy in regards to what other nations should or should not do, but the following words are somewhat worrisome in light of Iran’s relationship with North Korea:
Last year, Seoul listed 126 Iranian companies and individuals for economic sanctions, including a major banking operation, in response to American and international pressure. Seoul is reportedly considering imposing sanctions targeting the petrochemical industry following the latest round of sanctions by Washington and other Western powers.
A 10 percent crude oil dependency is not easily shifted but it’s worth the Republic of Korea noting that Iran has been a major trading partner with North Korea in the realms of missile, nuclear and (apparently) submarine technologies for a good many years now.
Continuously waiting for American pressure to ponder sanctions in light of the above relationship is a strange move for a country trying to pry itself out from under America’s shadow but then so is trading with a country that’s helping the nation its still at war with.
This story first appeared at Asia Security Watch, December 6, 2011.
