Atlantic Sentinel

Tag: Scotland

  • “Hard” Brexit Dilemma for Scottish Nationalists

    Theresa May’s admission last week that the United Kingdom will have to leave the single market at the same time as it leaves the EU means the Scottish nationalists face a difficult choice: relent or demand a second independence referendum.

    Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish National Party leader and regional first minister, had urged “flexibility” in Britain’s exit negotiations with the EU. 62 percent of Scots voted to remain in the bloc last summer against 47 percent of the English. Many feel like Sturgeon that Scotland is being taken out of the EU against its will.

    Sturgeon warned that a “hard” exit, under which all parts of the United Kingdom would lose access to the European single market, could convince her party to seek independence a second time. (more…)

  • “Flexible” Brexit Is Not a Realistic Solution for Scotland

    A “flexible” Brexit, under which those parts of the United Kingdom that voted in June’s referendum to stay in the European Union would remain members of the single market, may be the answer to many political headaches, but it’s almost impossible to pull off.

    Such a scheme might work for Gibraltar and Northern Ireland, which share land borders with the EU but not with Great Britain.

    But it’s difficult to imagine how this could work for Scotland. Would continental goods that were exported tariff-free to Scotland be taxed at the English border? What about Europeans visiting Edinburgh or Glasgow without a visa? Would they need to go through customs if they wanted to see other parts of the United Kingdom?

    Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has nevertheless called for flexibility, “particularly for those parts of the United Kingdom that voted decisively to remain in Europe.”

    62 percent of Scots voted to stay in the EU this summer against 47 percent of the English.

    The majority of voters in Gibraltar, London and Northern Ireland opted to remain as well. (more…)

  • Sturgeon’s “Listening Exercise” an Admission of Weakness

    The “biggest ever political listening exercise” to gauge public support for a second independence referendum Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, announced on Friday is really an admission of weakness.

    Sturgeon, who heads the separatist Scottish National Party, said the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union in a referendum this summer will have “a deep impact on our ambition for this country.”

    “The United Kingdom that existed before June 23 has fundamentally changed,” she told a party gathering in Stirling.

    Whereas a majority of English and Welsh voters opted to leave the EU, a majority of Scots voted to stay in. They feel they’re now being taken out of the 28-nation bloc against their will.

    Yet Sturgeon has balked at calling for a second Scottish independence referendum outright. (more…)

  • Both Conservatives, Labour Should Have Done Better

    British parliament London
    Westminster Palace in London, England (Unsplash/Matt Milton)

    Local elections in the United Kingdom on Thursday provided the biggest litmus test of the parties’ popularity since the 2015 general election.

    The results were mixed.

    After so many surveys called the last election wrong, pollsters and pundits were more cautious this time around. But two assumptions were nevertheless made: that the English council elections would follow the pattern of punishing the national governing party and that the Scottish National Party would keep its majority north of the border, possibly even wipe out Labour.

    Neither of these predictions quite came to pass. (more…)

  • Scottish Referendum Raises Questions About Nationhood

    The polls are closed, but that doesn’t mean an end to the Scottish referendum in the news. Even by tomorrow night, there will be plenty more to say (and repeat) on the issue which, either way, will change the United Kingdom — either destroying it or keeping it together with new expectations of devolution among its constituent countries.

    All eyes, it seems, both north, south and abroad, are watching with some dog in the race, either culturally (in the case of the millions of Scots descendants who still claim to be Scottish) or politically. Politicians in Madrid, for example, are no doubt observing with particular interest and wondering how this will all knock on for Spain’s own issues with the Catalans and the Basques.

    Opinions on the matter are as divided in England as they are in Scotland, not just including the Scots living south of the border who have been unable to vote (like Andy Murray, who tweeted his support for independence) but also among the English. Some Conservatives see it as a wonderful opportunity to reduce the voters of the opposition; Scotland was for years a Labour bastion until many Scots felt underwhelmed and even outright betrayed by the policies of New Labour. With a reduced leftist population in a rump United Kingdom, the right-wing Conservatives and United Kingdom Independence Party would gain a larger relative portion of the vote. You’d think David Cameron would be pleased about that at least but credit where it is due — he does seem to genuinely want the union to continue despite the potential opportunities for his own party. (more…)

  • Scots Reject Independence in Referendum

    Edinburgh Scotland
    Skyline of Edinburgh, Scotland (Unsplash/Joe Tree)
    • 55 percent of Scots have voted against leaving the United Kingdom in a referendum.
    • Turnout was 84 percent, or 3.6 million.
    • Scottish independence could have made a British exit from the EU more likely.
    • Prime Minister David Cameron has called for a “balanced settlement” that is fair to Scotland as well as the rest of the UK. (more…)

  • As Scottish Referendum Nears, Tempers Heat Up

    With Scotland’s referendum on whether or not to secede from the United Kingdom under two weeks away, the rhetoric from both sides of debate has become fierce. One Scottish women, a nationalist, recently accused Alistair Darling, the former Labour chancellor who leads the “Better Together” campaign, of being a liar, saying, “He can’t be trusted”. While on a recent episode of Question Time, one of the BBC’s flagship political programs, taped in Inverness in the Scottish Highlands, an audience member said he would give his life to keep the union together.

    The heating up in the debate has been noticed by the Scottish police. The chairman of the Scottish Police Federation warned both campaigners and members of the public to not use “intemperate, inflammatory and exaggerated language” after a senior “no” campaign source suggested that polling day could descend into “absolute carnage.” Although he was quick to point out that the debate has been temperate so far and that it would be a disservice to let the last days go by in any other way. (more…)

  • Scotland May Not Fare Better Outside United Kingdom

    Buachaille Etive Mòr Scotland
    Cottage at the foot of Buachaille Etive Mòr in the Highlands of Scotland (Unsplash/Max Hermansson)

    In less than two years’ time, the people of Scotland will decide in a referendum whether to stay in the United Kingdom or not. Despite intense debate between opponents and proponents of secession, how the ordinary Scotsmen might fare under independence is less clear.

    A recent University of Edinburgh study is fairly devastating for the ruling Scottish National Party which advocates secession. It polled a thousand teenagers who would be just old enough to vote in the 2014 referendum and found that 60 percent wanted to stay in the union. 21 percent backed independence. This is the very demographic the nationalists fought to extend the vote to. (more…)

  • Ahead of Referendum, Confusion Over Scottish Oil

    North Sea oil and gas will likely be one of the most divisive issues in the 2014 referendum on Scotland’s independence. Who does it belong to and do they own all of it?

    The first North Sea oil came ashore in June 1975 and production is believed to have peaked in 1999 with more than forty billion barrels extracted so far. There are arguments about how much oil is left but historically high prices have made it feasible to drill for reserves that are harder to get with new and expensive technologies.

    International convention says that a maritime border between two countries is an extension of the frontier on land. The land border between England and Scotland points upward on both the east and west coast. The maritime border used to follow this convention, putting a large portion of North Sea hydrocarbon reserves in English waters.

    However, the maritime boundary was tweaked years ago, without consulting the English, to give the “Scottish sector” more of the oil. Which isn’t a problem as long as Scotland remains in the United Kingdom, since revenues flow to London and are then distributed across the country. But if Scotland decides to secede, the English might demand that the boundary is corrected. (more…)

  • Independent Scottish Defense Would Amount to Little

    Britain’s defense secretary, Philip Hammond, made light of Scottish plans for an independent defense on Thursday, arguing in an interview with The Daily Telegraph, “Taking random units and putting them together does not make an army. Half a destroyer would be no use to anyone, neither would be one frigate.” If crude, it is a fair assessment.

    The Scots will vote in a referendum next year about whether they wish to secede from Britain. Opinion polls show there isn’t majority support for independence although the separatist Scottish National Party is by far the dominant political force in the region. It promises to commit £2.5 billion per year to defense if Scottish voters decide to break away from the United Kingdom.

    Paul Cornish, a professor in strategic studies at the University of Exeter, writes in The Daily Telegraph that that’s significantly less than the £3.3 billion that Scotland currently contributes to British defense spending, totaling some £35 billion — which is hardly enough to finance the country’s defense needs as is. (more…)

  • Independent Scotland Would Give Conservatives Majority

    Since the announcement that a referendum on the future of Scotland will be held at some point in 2014 — also the centenary of the beginning of World War I, a ploy to remind the nation of what a United Kingdom can achieve? — there has been much discussion about whether the region’s secession would leave the Conservative Party with a permanent majority in Parliament.

    Scottish independence seems a win-win for Conservatives. If a majority of Scots votes against secession, the union is saved. If Scots vote in favor, the Tories win a huge advantage over Labour. While Ed Miliband’s party would be stripped of 41 seats in Parliament, David Cameron’s would lose just one.

    Indeed, some wry observers have pointed out that there are now more great pandas in Scotland than Conservative parliamentarians. But it’s doubtful whether the region’s secession would imply permanent right-wing government in Westminster. (more…)