Atlantic Sentinel

Tag: Russia

  • Italians Turn Their Backs on Putin (And His Sympathizers)

    Mario Draghi
    Italian prime minister Mario Draghi answers questions from reporters in Brussels, October 22, 2021 (European Council)

    Matteo Salvini, the leader of Italy’s far-right League, visited the Polish-Ukrainian border this month to “help refugees.” But he made headlines for a different reason. In a video that went viral, Salvini could be seen squirming away from a news conference when the mayor of Przemyśl, a Polish town across the border from Lviv, taunted him with a T-shirt emblazoned with a visage of Salvini’s “friend,” Vladimir Putin. Salvini wore a similar shirt when he visited Moscow in 2014.

    Salvini’s embarrassment is part of a broader blowback against Italy’s populist right over its cozy ties to Putin, one that could discredit the anti-American strain in Italian politics. (more…)

  • Recommended Reading on the Russo-Ukrainian War

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has entered its fourth week. Russian forces have made limited headway, according to Western assessments. Russia has failed to take major Ukrainian cities and is instead shelling them from a distance, causing enormous destruction to property and unknown casualties.

    In Mariupol alone, which has been surrounded by Russians attacking from Crimea in the west and the Russian puppet republic of Donetsk in the north, officials report 2,500 dead.

    More than three million Ukrainians, out of 44 million, have left the country, according to the UN. Almost two million fled to Poland.

    Chernihiv, close to the border with Belarus, has been without electricity, heat and water for almost three weeks. Suburbs of Kiev were cut off from heat and water this week.

    Russian forces have progressed farthest in the agricultural Kherson Oblast in the south, reaching the east bank of the Dnieper River that cuts Ukraine in half.

    Here are the most insightful takes on the war I’ve read this week. Click here for my previous recommendations. (more…)

  • Dutch Ignored Warnings About Relying on Russian Gas

    The Hague Netherlands
    Dutch government offices and parliament buildings in The Hague (iStock/Fotolupa)

    Germany is primarily to blame for Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. As I wrote here two weeks ago, it simultaneously phased out coal and nuclear, couldn’t possibly replace both with renewables, relied on natural gas and hid behind the excuse that buying gas from Russia was just business. If there were political implications at all, successive German governments argued they would be positive. Trading with the Soviet Union had paved the way for détente, and at the time Americans had also opposed Ostpolitik. Why listen to them now?

    But this time the Americans were right. And Eastern Europeans. And the many Western experts who tried to warn their governments that they were relying on an unreliable regime and funding Vladimir Putin’s war machine.

    My country is no exception. When I was doing research for Wynia’s Week about Gazprom’s sprawling business interests in the Netherlands, I discovered that the Dutch government had been repeatedly warned through the years against relying on Russian gas imports.

    Hubert Smeets, the co-founder of Raam op Rusland, which publishes in Dutch and English, told me the Netherlands should have looked for alternatives to Russian gas, especially after the annexation of Crimea and the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in which 193 Dutch nationals were killed. “It is unbelievable that the opposite happened under Prime Minister Mark Rutte.”

    Only now that Russia has dramatically escalated its war in Ukraine do most Dutch political parties want to stop buying Russian gas. (And are they willing to raise defense spending.)

    They should have paid more attention in the past. The warning signs were there. (more…)

  • Germany Admits Failure of Ostpolitik 2.0

    Olaf Scholz
    German chancellor Olaf Scholz sits down to give a news conference in Berlin, February 16 (Bundesregierung/Johannssen-Koppitz)

    The Financial Times reports that German businesses are steeling themselves to sever links with Russia.

    The German government is raising defense spending to €100 billion this year, meeting NATO’s 2-percent norm for the first time in thirty years and giving Germany a larger military budget than Russia. It is buying fifty new warplanes, including the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

    The government also supports the European Commission’s proposals to make the EU less dependent on Russian oil and gas.

    I’m the glass-half-full type, so I want to say better late than never. But Germany really is late in seeing Vladimir Putin for who he is. (more…)

  • Which Countries Still Support Russia, and Why

    Vladimir Putin Jair Bolsonaro
    Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil pose for photos in the Planalto Palace in Brasília, November 14, 2019 (Palácio do Planalto/Marcos Corrêa)

    Vladimir Putin has few allies in his war against Ukraine. The democracies of East Asia, Europe and North America are against him, and have imposed unprecedented economic sanctions. Almost the entire rest of the world has condemned the invasion.

    A few countries are reluctant, or have outright refused, to take a stand. I asked the Atlantic Sentinel‘s China, India, Israel and South America experts to explain why. (more…)

  • Why Europe Didn’t Reduce Its Dependence on Russian Gas

    Rotterdam Netherlands port
    Liquified natural gas terminal in the port of Rotterdam, the Netherlands (Gasunie)

    Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan and the United States have imposed unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia since it invaded Ukraine, banning Russian airlines and state media, cutting off Russian banks from the SWIFT financial system and freezing the assets of Russian oligarchs and the Russian Central Bank.

    The one step European countries haven’t taken is blocking Russian oil and gas. They can’t.

    Oil and gas account for 60 percent of Russia’s exports and 39 percent of its tax revenues. Cutting off either or both would seriously hamper Vladimir Putin’s ability to make war. But Europe is just as dependent on Russian imports as Russia is on exports.

    This is not a new problem. After Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, the European Commission tried to get member states behind a common energy strategy that would make the EU more self-reliant. Member states prioritized their individual interests.

    1. Eastern Europeans understood the danger of relying on Russia, but refused to invest in green energy, because it was too expensive.
    2. Western Europeans invested more in renewables, but also chose to rely on Russian gas and ignored the risks. (more…)

  • Recommended Reading on the Russo-Ukrainian War

    Vladimir Putin dramatically escalated his war in Ukraine a week ago, attacking the country’s major cities Kharkiv and Kiev and expanding Russian control of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast out of Crimea.

    So far the least successful Russian offensive has been in the Donbas. Possibly because the Ukrainian soldiers there are its most battle-hardened. Or maybe the Russian attack from the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk was only meant to pin those Ukrainian forces down.

    Russian troops have entered the northern suburbs of Kiev, streaming down from Belarus. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and his government remain in the city, once home to three million.

    The United Nations estimates that 660,000 Ukrainians have fled. More than half made their way to Poland. The Polish government says 50,000 Ukrainians are arriving every day. Hungary has taken 90,000 refugees. Hundreds thousands more are internally displaced.

    The European Union has banned Russian flights and state media, and in an historic first is providing €500 million worth of weapons to Ukraine. Large Western companies, including automaker Daimler and the oil and gas giant Shell, are pulling out of Russia.

    I haven’t been writing daily analyses of the war, because there are others who do that much better. Here are the sources I recommend. (more…)

  • Putin Invades Ukraine. How Far Will He Go?

    Russian tanks
    Russian T-72 tanks conduct military exercises in Chebarkul, April 24, 2017 (Russian Ministry of Defense)

    Russia has invaded Ukraine from three sides, attacking from Belarus in the north, its own territory and the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, and Russian-controlled Crimea in the south.

    Explosions were reported in many Ukrainian cities on Thursday, including Odessa on the Black Sea, suggesting missile attacks from Russian navy ships.

    Russian soldiers took control of an airbase as well as the sealed-off Chernobyl nuclear power plant north of Kiev. Tanks were spotted on the outskirts of Kharkiv, where residents are spending the night in underground metro stations. Fighting is ongoing in Mariupol across the line of control from the Donetsk People’s Republic Russia — but no other country — has recognized as independent.

    Ukraine reports 57 fatalities. The United Nations estimates that 100,000 Ukrainians have fled. (more…)

  • Finlandization Is Not an Option for Ukraine

    Motherland Monument Kiev Ukraine
    Motherland Monument in Kiev, Ukraine, December 20, 2018 (Unsplash/Rostislav Artov)

    Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War almost eight years ago, self-proclaimed realists in the West have peddled the same solution: “Finlandization”.

    Like Finland (and Austria) during the Cold War, Ukraine would be allowed closer economic integration with the rest of Europe but not NATO membership.

    I doubted this was a solution then, and everything that’s happened since should have put the notion to rest. Ukrainians don’t want to be Finlandized. Vladimir Putin wouldn’t be content with a neutral Ukraine. (more…)

  • Don’t Fall for Putin’s Propaganda About Ukraine

    Vladimir Putin
    Russian president Vladimir Putin listens during a meeting in Voronezh, August 5, 2014 (Kremlin)

    With Russia possibly on the verge of escalating the Donbas War, it’s worth repudiating Vladimir Putin’s justifications for invading Ukraine.

    This summer, Putin explained at length why he believes Russia and Ukraine are inseparable. His is a selective version of history that is illuminating insofar as it reveals Russian attitudes toward Belarusians, Ukrainians and other Slavic peoples in Eastern Europe; it’s not an excuse for denying Ukrainians their right to self-determination. (more…)

  • Don’t Blame Russia for High Gas Prices

    Amur gas plant Svobodny Russia
    Gazprom workers at the Amur natural gas plant outside Svobodny, Russia, June 9, 2021 (Gazprom)

    The price of natural gas is skyrocketing. In the United States, it’s up 100 percent from a year ago. In parts of Europe, 500 percent. Japan and Korea are paying record prices for liquified natural gas imports.

    Nick Ottens explained the reasons behind this surge here. I will focus on one: Russia’s role.

    Russia has been accused of market manipulation by various countries: forcing the price of gas up in order to accelerate the completion of Nord Stream 2. This accusation is unsurprising, given the history of price and supply disputes between Europe and Russia.

    But it is wrong. (more…)

  • EU Must Send Strong Message to Belarus — And Russia

    Ursula von der Leyen Paolo Gentiloni Frans Timmermans
    European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen speaks with Paolo Gentiloni and Frans Timmermans, the commissioners for the economy and climate, in Brussels, May 12 (European Commission/Dati Bendo)

    The interception of a Ryanair plane by Belarus is a breach of international right.

    The crew was told by Belarusian officials there was a bomb threat, and they needed to divert to Minsk. It was a ploy to kidnap opposition blogger Roman Protasevich, who was traveling on the flight from Greece to Lithuania.

    The Western response has so far been one of shared indignation. This must be followed by concrete action against dictator Alexander Lukashenko — not in the least to send a strong message to his protector in Moscow. (more…)

  • Allegations of Russian Meddling Resurface in Catalonia

    Sagrada Família Barcelona Spain
    Aerial view of the Sagrada Família in Barcelona, Spain (Unsplash/Carles Rabada)

    Allegations of Russian interference have swirled around the Catalan independence movement for the last three years.

    I cautioned against exaggerating Russia’s role in 2017, when two million Catalans voted in a referendum that had been deemed illegal by the Spanish state to break away.

    I still believe what I did then: that Russia is a convenient scapegoat for Spaniards who don’t want to understand why nearly one in two Catalans prefer their own republic.

    “Easier to blame foreign manipulation than examine the root causes of Catalan separatism and the events which led to the current crisis,” I wrote — from the 2010 Constitutional Court ruling that overturned parts of Catalonia’s autonomy statute to former prime minister Mariano Rajoy’s years-long refusal to negotiate a revision of the charter to current prime minister Pedro Sánchez slow-walking his promise to do just that. (more…)

  • Pressure Mounts on Merkel to Cancel Nord Stream 2

    Vladimir Putin Angela Merkel
    Russian president Vladimir Putin speaks with German chancellor Angela Merkel in Moscow, May 10, 2015 (Kremlin)

    Pressure is mounting on Chancellor Angela Merkel to cancel the almost-completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which could double Russian gas exports to Germany.

    Merkel has accused the Russian government of poisoning opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who is recuperating in a Berlin hospital.

    The obvious response, her critics say, would be to withdraw from a €10 billion project that makes Germany — Europe’s largest gas importer — more dependent on Russia. (more…)

  • What Biden Would Mean for Russia

    Joe Biden
    American vice president Joe Biden listens during a meeting in the Situation Room of the White House in Washington DC, February 2, 2015 (White House/Pete Souza)

    With Joe Biden favored to win the American presidential election in November, Vladimir Putin’s days of comfort may be coming to an end.

    Unlike Donald Trump, who has coddled the Russian leader, accepted his denials of 2016 election interference and lifted sanctions on Putin ally Oleg Deripaska, an oligarch who funded pro-Russian political parties in Ukraine (which were advised by later Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort), the Democrat considers Putin a “thug”, a “dictator” and a threat to “the foundations of Western democracy.”

    Unlike Trump, who has given up America’s power to shame, Biden insists America should lead “not just by the example of our power, but by the power of our example.” (more…)