Atlantic Sentinel

Tag: Russia and the West

Russia and the West have had a love-hate relationship for centuries. These are the stories of what some are already calling the Second Cold War.

  • EU Proposes to Cap Electricity, Russian Gas Prices

    Ursula von der Leyen
    European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen delivers a news conference in Brussels, July 19 (European Commission/Christophe Licoppe)

    European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has proposed an unprecedented intervention in European energy markets to bring down electricity and gas prices:

    • Cap the price Europe pays for Russian gas.
    • Cap prices of electricity generated in non-gas plants.
    • Mandate energy conservation during peak hours.
    • Tax windfall profits made by energy companies to finance relief for small businesses and households.

    Russia immediately threatened to cut off all energy supplies if member states agreed to the plan.

    The Netherlands, which led the opposition to a blanket cap on gas prices, could support one for Russian gas.

    The Czech Republic, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU, remains skeptical. Industry minister Jozef Síkela told reporters a council of European energy ministers on Friday would consider only two proposals: delinking electricity and gas prices, and capping electricity generated in non-gas plants. (The second requires the first.) (more…)

  • Italians Turn Their Backs on Putin (And His Sympathizers)

    Mario Draghi
    Italian prime minister Mario Draghi answers questions from reporters in Brussels, October 22, 2021 (European Council)

    Matteo Salvini, the leader of Italy’s far-right League, visited the Polish-Ukrainian border this month to “help refugees.” But he made headlines for a different reason. In a video that went viral, Salvini could be seen squirming away from a news conference when the mayor of Przemyśl, a Polish town across the border from Lviv, taunted him with a T-shirt emblazoned with a visage of Salvini’s “friend,” Vladimir Putin. Salvini wore a similar shirt when he visited Moscow in 2014.

    Salvini’s embarrassment is part of a broader blowback against Italy’s populist right over its cozy ties to Putin, one that could discredit the anti-American strain in Italian politics. (more…)

  • Dutch Ignored Warnings About Relying on Russian Gas

    The Hague Netherlands
    Dutch government offices and parliament buildings in The Hague (iStock/Fotolupa)

    Germany is primarily to blame for Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. As I wrote here two weeks ago, it simultaneously phased out coal and nuclear, couldn’t possibly replace both with renewables, relied on natural gas and hid behind the excuse that buying gas from Russia was just business. If there were political implications at all, successive German governments argued they would be positive. Trading with the Soviet Union had paved the way for détente, and at the time Americans had also opposed Ostpolitik. Why listen to them now?

    But this time the Americans were right. And Eastern Europeans. And the many Western experts who tried to warn their governments that they were relying on an unreliable regime and funding Vladimir Putin’s war machine.

    My country is no exception. When I was doing research for Wynia’s Week about Gazprom’s sprawling business interests in the Netherlands, I discovered that the Dutch government had been repeatedly warned through the years against relying on Russian gas imports.

    Hubert Smeets, the co-founder of Raam op Rusland, which publishes in Dutch and English, told me the Netherlands should have looked for alternatives to Russian gas, especially after the annexation of Crimea and the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in which 193 Dutch nationals were killed. “It is unbelievable that the opposite happened under Prime Minister Mark Rutte.”

    Only now that Russia has dramatically escalated its war in Ukraine do most Dutch political parties want to stop buying Russian gas. (And are they willing to raise defense spending.)

    They should have paid more attention in the past. The warning signs were there. (more…)

  • Germany Admits Failure of Ostpolitik 2.0

    Olaf Scholz
    German chancellor Olaf Scholz sits down to give a news conference in Berlin, February 16 (Bundesregierung/Johannssen-Koppitz)

    The Financial Times reports that German businesses are steeling themselves to sever links with Russia.

    The German government is raising defense spending to €100 billion this year, meeting NATO’s 2-percent norm for the first time in thirty years and giving Germany a larger military budget than Russia. It is buying fifty new warplanes, including the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

    The government also supports the European Commission’s proposals to make the EU less dependent on Russian oil and gas.

    I’m the glass-half-full type, so I want to say better late than never. But Germany really is late in seeing Vladimir Putin for who he is. (more…)

  • Why Europe Didn’t Reduce Its Dependence on Russian Gas

    Rotterdam Netherlands port
    Liquified natural gas terminal in the port of Rotterdam, the Netherlands (Gasunie)

    Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan and the United States have imposed unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia since it invaded Ukraine, banning Russian airlines and state media, cutting off Russian banks from the SWIFT financial system and freezing the assets of Russian oligarchs and the Russian Central Bank.

    The one step European countries haven’t taken is blocking Russian oil and gas. They can’t.

    Oil and gas account for 60 percent of Russia’s exports and 39 percent of its tax revenues. Cutting off either or both would seriously hamper Vladimir Putin’s ability to make war. But Europe is just as dependent on Russian imports as Russia is on exports.

    This is not a new problem. After Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, the European Commission tried to get member states behind a common energy strategy that would make the EU more self-reliant. Member states prioritized their individual interests.

    1. Eastern Europeans understood the danger of relying on Russia, but refused to invest in green energy, because it was too expensive.
    2. Western Europeans invested more in renewables, but also chose to rely on Russian gas and ignored the risks. (more…)

  • Finlandization Is Not an Option for Ukraine

    Motherland Monument Kiev Ukraine
    Motherland Monument in Kiev, Ukraine, December 20, 2018 (Unsplash/Rostislav Artov)

    Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War almost eight years ago, self-proclaimed realists in the West have peddled the same solution: “Finlandization”.

    Like Finland (and Austria) during the Cold War, Ukraine would be allowed closer economic integration with the rest of Europe but not NATO membership.

    I doubted this was a solution then, and everything that’s happened since should have put the notion to rest. Ukrainians don’t want to be Finlandized. Vladimir Putin wouldn’t be content with a neutral Ukraine. (more…)

  • Don’t Fall for Putin’s Propaganda About Ukraine

    Vladimir Putin
    Russian president Vladimir Putin listens during a meeting in Voronezh, August 5, 2014 (Kremlin)

    With Russia possibly on the verge of escalating the Donbas War, it’s worth repudiating Vladimir Putin’s justifications for invading Ukraine.

    This summer, Putin explained at length why he believes Russia and Ukraine are inseparable. His is a selective version of history that is illuminating insofar as it reveals Russian attitudes toward Belarusians, Ukrainians and other Slavic peoples in Eastern Europe; it’s not an excuse for denying Ukrainians their right to self-determination. (more…)

  • Don’t Blame Russia for High Gas Prices

    Amur gas plant Svobodny Russia
    Gazprom workers at the Amur natural gas plant outside Svobodny, Russia, June 9, 2021 (Gazprom)

    The price of natural gas is skyrocketing. In the United States, it’s up 100 percent from a year ago. In parts of Europe, 500 percent. Japan and Korea are paying record prices for liquified natural gas imports.

    Nick Ottens explained the reasons behind this surge here. I will focus on one: Russia’s role.

    Russia has been accused of market manipulation by various countries: forcing the price of gas up in order to accelerate the completion of Nord Stream 2. This accusation is unsurprising, given the history of price and supply disputes between Europe and Russia.

    But it is wrong. (more…)

  • Europe’s High Energy Prices, Explained

    Eemshaven Netherlands power plant
    Power plant in the Eemshaven of the Netherlands, April 17, 2020 (Unsplash/Untitled Photo)

    Electricity prices are hitting records across Europe. In Portugal and Spain, wholesale energy prices have tripled from half a year ago to €178 per megawatt-hour. Italy is not far behind at €176. Dutch households without a fixed-price contract could end up paying €500 more this year. In the UK, prices peaked at €247 per megawatt-hour earlier this week.

    The main culprit is the high price of natural gas, up 440 percent from a year ago. But Europe is facing something of a perfect storm involving accidents, depleted reserves and a higher carbon price.

    Here are all the reasons prices are up — and what governments are doing about it. (more…)

  • EU Must Send Strong Message to Belarus — And Russia

    Ursula von der Leyen Paolo Gentiloni Frans Timmermans
    European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen speaks with Paolo Gentiloni and Frans Timmermans, the commissioners for the economy and climate, in Brussels, May 12 (European Commission/Dati Bendo)

    The interception of a Ryanair plane by Belarus is a breach of international right.

    The crew was told by Belarusian officials there was a bomb threat, and they needed to divert to Minsk. It was a ploy to kidnap opposition blogger Roman Protasevich, who was traveling on the flight from Greece to Lithuania.

    The Western response has so far been one of shared indignation. This must be followed by concrete action against dictator Alexander Lukashenko — not in the least to send a strong message to his protector in Moscow. (more…)

  • Allegations of Russian Meddling Resurface in Catalonia

    Sagrada Família Barcelona Spain
    Aerial view of the Sagrada Família in Barcelona, Spain (Unsplash/Carles Rabada)

    Allegations of Russian interference have swirled around the Catalan independence movement for the last three years.

    I cautioned against exaggerating Russia’s role in 2017, when two million Catalans voted in a referendum that had been deemed illegal by the Spanish state to break away.

    I still believe what I did then: that Russia is a convenient scapegoat for Spaniards who don’t want to understand why nearly one in two Catalans prefer their own republic.

    “Easier to blame foreign manipulation than examine the root causes of Catalan separatism and the events which led to the current crisis,” I wrote — from the 2010 Constitutional Court ruling that overturned parts of Catalonia’s autonomy statute to former prime minister Mariano Rajoy’s years-long refusal to negotiate a revision of the charter to current prime minister Pedro Sánchez slow-walking his promise to do just that. (more…)

  • Pressure Mounts on Merkel to Cancel Nord Stream 2

    Vladimir Putin Angela Merkel
    Russian president Vladimir Putin speaks with German chancellor Angela Merkel in Moscow, May 10, 2015 (Kremlin)

    Pressure is mounting on Chancellor Angela Merkel to cancel the almost-completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which could double Russian gas exports to Germany.

    Merkel has accused the Russian government of poisoning opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who is recuperating in a Berlin hospital.

    The obvious response, her critics say, would be to withdraw from a €10 billion project that makes Germany — Europe’s largest gas importer — more dependent on Russia. (more…)

  • What Biden Would Mean for Russia

    Joe Biden
    American vice president Joe Biden listens during a meeting in the Situation Room of the White House in Washington DC, February 2, 2015 (White House/Pete Souza)

    With Joe Biden favored to win the American presidential election in November, Vladimir Putin’s days of comfort may be coming to an end.

    Unlike Donald Trump, who has coddled the Russian leader, accepted his denials of 2016 election interference and lifted sanctions on Putin ally Oleg Deripaska, an oligarch who funded pro-Russian political parties in Ukraine (which were advised by later Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort), the Democrat considers Putin a “thug”, a “dictator” and a threat to “the foundations of Western democracy.”

    Unlike Trump, who has given up America’s power to shame, Biden insists America should lead “not just by the example of our power, but by the power of our example.” (more…)

  • Pulling American Troops Out of Germany Is Another Gift to Putin

    American transport aircraft Germany
    Two American C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft fly in formation over Germany, May 27, 2014 (USAF/Jordan Castelan)

    Donald Trump has done his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, another favor by withdrawing almost 12,000 American troops from Germany, a third of the current deployment.

    Fewer than half — 5,600 — are sent to other NATO countries, including Poland. Most will be pulled out of Europe altogether. An F-16 fighter squadron will be rebased in Italy.

    Defense Secretary Mark Esper claims the decision is the outcome of long-term strategic planning and will somehow enhance “deterrence of Russia”.

    President Trump revealed the real reason on Twitter:

    Germany pays Russia billions of dollars a year for Energy, and we are supposed to protect Germany from Russia. What’s that all about? Also, Germany is very delinquent in their 2% fee to NATO. We are therefore moving some troops out of Germany!

    This is nonsense. There is no NATO “fee”. Germany has for decades underinvested in its defense, relying on American protection, but until recently neither the United States nor Germany’s neighbors objected to the lack of German remilitarization. In 1990, the Western Allies and Russia conditioned their support for German reunification on the country keeping its defense force under 370,000 men. That ceiling remains in place. (more…)

  • Macron’s Idealistic Russia Pragmatism

    Sebastian Kurz Emmanuel Macron
    Austrian chancellor Sebastian Kurz and French president Emmanuel Macron speak on the sidelines of a summit in Brussels, April 10, 2019 (BKA/Arno Melicharek)

    The 2020 Munich Security Conference saw French president Emmanuel Macron reaffirm his eagerness to turn Russia into a security partner, suggesting that “we have to restart a strategic dialogue.”

    But Russia hasn’t been a part of Europe for a while and doesn’t belong in a conversation about European autonomy. The only thing that ties it to Europe is geography. (more…)