Tag: Post-American World

We are entering a post-American world, accelerated by President Donald Trump’s disinterest in multilateralism. The post-Cold War era of American hyperpower is giving way to increased interstate competition and the formation of regional blocs.

  • European Defense: If Not Now, When?

    Varenna Italy jets
    Italian Air Force jets create the country’s tricolor with green, white and red smoke trails over Varenna, September 29, 2019 (Wikimedia Commons/Achille Ballerini)

    Pre-Trump America is not coming back. If last week’s announcement of a trilateral defense pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (“AUKUS”) doesn’t convince the last Atlanticists that Europe needs to take matters into its own hands, I don’t know what will.

    The new alliance excludes Europe. It snatches a deal to build nuclear submarines from France, the EU’s top military power. And it was negotiated in secret. The three English-speaking leaders didn’t even bother to give their European allies a head’s up!

    The French, who would lose a €56 billion contract to build submarines for Australia, have called the snub “a breach of trust” and “a stab in the back.” French ambassadors have been recalled from Canberra and Washington DC for the first time ever.

    Other Europeans are frustrated too, with officials calling the Australian about-face “unacceptable.”

    Inevitably, it has been dubbed a “wake-up call” by everyone from Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign-policy coordinator, to Michael Roth, Germany’s European affairs ministers. But canceling an Australia-EU trade deal, which the European Commission had hoped to finalize this year, or postponing transatlantic talks about technology cooperation, which are scheduled for next week, won’t make Europe safer. What Europe needs to do is take its own defense seriously. (more…)

  • Trump’s Geopolitical Madness

    Donald Trump Emmanuel Macron
    Presidents Donald Trump of the United States and Emmanuel Macron of France watch a flyover of American F-15s in Normandy, June 6, 2019 (White House/Shealah Craighead)

    Defenders of Donald Trump’s foreign policy confuse his lack of sentimentality for realism. In fact, his disinterest in America’s decades-old alliances in Europe and the Far East defies a century of geopolitical wisdom.

    Strategists from Halford Mackinder to Zbigniew Brzezinski understood that only a united Eurasia, which has two-thirds of the world’s population and resources, can pose a threat to the Americas, while Robert Kagan and Henry Kissinger recently warned, in The Jungle Grows Back (2018) and World Order (2014), respectively, that the long peace since World War II has owed as much to American “hard” power as to the world’s belief that Americans will, by and large, do the right thing.

    These assumptions were widely shared in Washington — until Trump became president. (more…)

  • Trump’s Withdrawal from Syria Is a Disaster

    Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Donald Trump
    Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey and Donald Trump of the United States meet in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington DC, May 16, 2017 (Presidency of the Republic of Turkey)

    The calamity of Donald Trump’s withdrawal from northern Syria is hard to overstate.

    • More than 160,000 people have fled the region.
    • A Kurdish politician and at least ten others have been killed.
    • Hundreds of fighters from the self-declared Islamic State (ISIS) — which the Kurds did more than anyone to defeat — have been freed from prison.
    • Trump doesn’t care, saying, “They’re going to be escaping to Europe.” No matter that’s where America’s best friends are, or used to be.
    • Turkey has attacked an American commando outpost in Syria.
    • Abandoned by the West, the Kurds are appealing to Bashar Assad and his patron, Vladimir Putin, for help. (more…)
  • Middle East Allies Are Wrong to Bet on Trump

    Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Donald Trump
    Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey and Donald Trump of the United States meet in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington DC, May 16, 2017 (Presidency of the Republic of Turkey)

    Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have all made their beds with Donald Trump. That’s paying dividends for them, but only so long as this president remains in power. What happens in two or six years? (more…)

  • Russian Missile Treaty Violation Is a Wake-up Call for Europe

    Edgars Rinkēvičs Jens Stoltenberg
    Latvian foreign minister Edgars Rinkēvičs speaks with NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels, April 4 (NATO)

    Last month, NATO allies issued a warning to Russia, urging it to destroy a new missile system that could threaten Europe or face a “defensive” response.

    The warning is a final opportunity for Russia to respect the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which banned land-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. If it doesn’t — and Russia claims the system in question has a range of only 480 kilometers — it will be another wake-up call for Europe. (more…)

  • Shameless Trump Gives Up America’s Power to Shame

    Angela Merkel Donald Trump
    German chancellor Angela Merkel speaks with American president Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington DC, March 17, 2017 (Bundesregierung)

    I have little to add to the opprobrium that has rightly been heaped on President Donald Trump from the left and the right — including a blistering editorial in the otherwise Trump-friendly Wall Street Journal — for condoning the Saudi killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

    Except this: It used to be that when the American president shamed other countries, the world listened. Trump has no shame and does not understand soft power. His is a simplistic realpolitik that gives authoritarians license to kill for fear of upsetting their feelings. (more…)

  • With German Support, A European Army Looks More Likely

    German soldiers
    A German soldier salutes the flag in Bonn, January 29, 2013 (Bundeswehr/Alexander Linden)

    It looks like a European army might really happen.

    German chancellor Angela Merkel, in a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday, endorsed the call of French president Emmanuel Macron for an EU fighting force.

    She praised the 25 member states — Denmark, Malta and the United Kingdom are not participating — that committed last year to enhance interoperability, pool their defense procurement and improve military logistics under the so-called Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO).

    But a proper army, she said, would make war in Europe impossible and “complement” the NATO alliance. (more…)

  • The Remarkable Thing About Europe Is Not That It Has Problems

    European Parliament Brussels
    The European Parliament meets in Brussels, February 1, 2017 (European Parliament)

    I’m used to American and British commentators dismissing the EU, but when even a Harvard professor misses the point it warrants a rebuttal.

    Imagining a post-American world, Stephen M. Walt doesn’t see Europe playing much of a role. He argues in Foreign Policy that the EU project is deeply troubled.

    • The outcome of the Brexit process is uncertain.
    • Economic growth on the continent is uneven.
    • Extremist parties are flourishing in several countries.
    • The refugee issue, which has convulsed domestic politics throughout Europe, is not going away.

    His bottom line:

    The EU has become too large and heterogeneous to make rapid and bold decisions, and it faces opposition from illiberal and xenophobic elements within.

    (more…)

  • Transatlantic Relations Take Another Downturn

    Angela Merkel Donald Trump
    German chancellor Angela Merkel speaks with American president Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington DC, March 17, 2017 (Bundesregierung)

    Europe is striking back against Donald Trump’s aluminum and steel tariffs, taxing €2.8 billion worth of American exports to the EU, including Kentucky bourbon and Harley Davidson motorcycles manufactured in Wisconsin, the home states of Republican leaders Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, respectively.

    The response is relatively mild. Trump’s tariffs target €6.6 billion in European exports to America. But it marks a new low in transatlantic relations, which started to deteriorate almost on the day Trump took office.

    Where do we go from here? Below the views of four experts. (more…)

  • Trump Agrees to Meet Kim, Trans Pacific Partnership Continues Without Him

    Donald Trump has accepted an invitation from Kim Jong-un to meet one-on-one. It would be the first time a sitting American president met with the North Korean dictator.

    North Korea craves international legitimacy, which the United States have deliberately withheld. Trump’s break with decades of policy is risky — but it’s not if existing policy has worked. North Korea remains a rogue state. It has only continued its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs.

    The challenge now, as Fred Kaplan writes in Slate, is organizing a careful diplomacy that includes coordinating common negotiating positions with Japan and South Korea.

    Unfortunately, Trump has yet to appoint an ambassador to Seoul. The State Department’s top North Korea expert has resigned. None of the three top foreign-policy officials in Trump’s government — Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense James Mattis, National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster — have much experience in Asia.

    Also read this thread by Robert E. Kelly about why Korea hands are skeptical. (more…)

  • Four Ways Trump’s Promise to Remake the World Could Pan Out

    Jens Stoltenberg Donald Trump Theresa May
    NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, American president Donald Trump and British prime minister Theresa May attend a ceremony at NATO headquarters in Brussels, May 25, 2017 (NATO)

    Gideon Rachman argues in the Financial Times that Donald Trump’s promise to reform the international system could pan out in one of four ways:

    1. Trump succeeds in getting the changes he wants and the system survives, in a modified form, with America still the global leader.
    2. A new system emerges, with the rest of the world operating under multilateral rules and ignoring unilateralist America as far as possible.
    3. America’s withdrawal leads to a collapse in the rules-based order — and chaos.
    4. Trump is satisfied with essentially cosmetic changes and the system continues much as it is now. (more…)
  • How Worried Is the World About Trump’s Abdication of Leadership?

    Donald Trump Angela Merkel
    American president Donald Trump speaks with German chancellor Angela Merkel at the G20 summit in Hamburg, July 6, 2017 (Bundesregierung)

    How worried is the rest of the world about Donald Trump’s abdication of American leadership?

    Not as much as is commonly assumed, argues Parag Khanna. He sees Trump’s presidency as merely continuing the demise of American hyperpower in favor of a multipolar world.

    Fred Kaplan disagrees. He argues that by his very abrogation of leadership, Trump has shown just how important the United States remain. (more…)

  • Trump Accelerates Demise of American World Order

    American EA-18G Growler jet
    An American EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft prepares to launch from the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush on deployment in the Mediterranean Sea, June 9 (USN/Matt Matlage)

    Donald Trump hasn’t ushered in a post-American world yet. But he is accelerating the demise of a benign hegemony that has made the world more peaceful and more prosperous with his policy of “America first”. (more…)

  • Europe and Japan Finalize Trade Deal

    Tokyo Japan
    View of Tokyo, Japan from the World Trade Center Building (Unsplash/Louie Martinez)

    The European Union and Japan have finalized a trade agreement that would create the world’s largest open economic zone when it comes into effect in 2019.

    The deal cuts tariffs, harmonizes product regulations and liberalizes public procurement for a market of 600 million people.

    The EU and Japan account for 28 percent of the world’s economic output.

    In a joint statement, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and Japanese prime minister Shinzō Abe said the deal demonstrates their commitment “to keeping the world economy working on the basis of free, open and fair markets with clear and transparent rules.” (more…)

  • EU Countries Deepen Military Cooperation Outside NATO

    German tanks
    German Leopard tanks in Bergen, January 23, 2015 (Bundeswehr)

    European countries have agreed to deepen defense cooperation outside NATO.

    The so-called Permanent Structured Cooperation involves 23 of the EU’s 28 member states.

    Ireland and Portugal are expected to join later. Denmark, Malta and the United Kingdom will probably stay out.

    All EU countries in Central and Eastern Europe have signed up, despite their wariness of weakening defense ties with the United States. (more…)