Tag: Mexico

  • AMLO and Trump: Useful Scapegoats or Unlikely Allies?

    Mexico’s new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), looks like the perfect adversary for Donald Trump. The American represents the financial elites and inequality AMLO has railed against his entire career whereas he himself embodies the hopes of Mexico’s poorest, many of whom have sought a better life in the United States — and who have been disparaged by Trump as criminals and rapists.

    But the two leaders also share traits: a populist style, policy light on detail and nostalgia for a bygone era.

    The two have avoided a confrontation on trade. Immigration and security provide more opportunities for compromise — but could just as easily cause the relationship to come unstuck. (more…)

  • Modest Gains for Trump in NAFTA Renegotiation

    On the heels of an arbitrary — and, it turns out, unnecessary — deadline, Canada, Mexico and the United States have finalized a renegotiation the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The new deal is called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA):

    What’s in it? (more…)

  • What You Need to Know About the Election in Mexico

    Mexico’s general election on July 1 will involve roughly 3,400 new elected officials taking office and $2 billion in campaign finance. It has been dubbed the biggest election in Mexican history.

    It is important not only in terms of scale, but in terms of its new rules. For the first time, the ban on reelection does not apply and independent candidates can run.

    This heightened capacity for change coincides with an electorate moving from apathy toward anger. Last year, only 18 percent of Mexicans told pollsters they were satisfied with their democracy, down from 41 percent in 2016. Institutional confidence is at a nadir.

    Concerns about violence and insecurity related to drug cartels and organized crime are now coupled with deep frustrations about corruption and impunity as well as lopsided relations with the United States. (more…)

  • Allies Hope for the Best from Trump, Must Plan for the Worst

    Donald Trump Jens Stoltenberg
    Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey and Donald Trump of the United States listen to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg of NATO making a speech in Brussels, May 25 (NATO)

    American allies are coping with Donald Trump’s disruptive presidency in similar ways, a collection of essays in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs magazine reveals:

    • All feel they need to step up and defend the liberal world order as Trump is determined to put “America first”.
    • They worry that a new era of American isolationism could make the world poorer and less safe.
    • Leaders are doing their best to rein in Trump’s worst impulses and most of their voters understand the need for pragmatism, although they have little faith in this president. (more…)
  • As America Turns Inward, Europe and Mexico Double Down on Trade

    The European Union and Mexico have committed to deepening their economies ties in the wake of Donald Trump’s inauguration as president of the United States.

    In a statement released last week, EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmström and Mexican economy secretary Ildefonso Guajardo announced that they would hold talks in April and June to renew a 2000 trade agreement between the two sides.

    The EU hopes to expand the trade deal to broaden property rights protection, lower tariffs and include public tenders as well as trade in energy products and raw materials. (more…)

  • Economy, Not Drug War, Peña’s Main Challenge

    Although some of the votes are being recounted to ensure that there were no irregularities, there is little question that Enrique Peña Nieto won the presidential election in Mexico this weekend. After twelve years, it marks the return to power of the country’s Institutional Revolutionary Party which ruled Mexico for more than seventy years in what was widely regarded as an authoritarian manner.

    Peña’s win is hardly a repudiation of Mexican democracy however. It rather signals a desire for change than a reminiscence for the days of single party rule. As the third place finish of the incumbent liberal National Action Party showed, Mexican voters overwhelmingly desire a different economic and a different security policy.

    Drug related violence in Mexico has increased dramatically during the last twelve years while economic growth has been lackluster. During the worst of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the Mexican economy contracted by almost 10 percent.

    Of the two issues, security and the economy, the former has captivated the attention of international news media. Much has been made of the potential consequences of a PRI government for the war on drugs and Mexico’s relations with the United States. American officials worry that Peña will turn a blind eye to the cartels due to public pressure. This is unlikely. He faces several constraints to his actions. (more…)

  • Oil Dependence Puts Mexico’s Energy Security at Risk

    Despite having been favored with considerable hydrocarbon resources, Mexico’s energy security is in a dire state. Years of a corporatist and clientelist regime under the Institutional Revolutionary Party consolidated various structural flaws, preventing state-owned company Petróleos Mexicanos or Pemex from being able to adapt to changes in the energy market and the difficulties in upstream activities.

    Four main challenges characterize Mexico’s current energy security situation. (more…)

  • Peña’s Election No Repudiation of Mexico’s Democracy

    Mexico elects its next president in less than three months from now. The Institutional Revolutionary Party is poised to return to power with the popular Enrique Peña Nieto, the former governor of the central state of Mexico.

    Among the remaining contenders is the nation’s second woman presidential candidate, Josefina Vázquez Mota, a former education secretary and businesswoman who represents the incumbent National Action Party. Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the former mayor of Mexico City, was nominated for the presidency for the second time by the left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution. Gabriel Quadri de la Torre represents the New Alliance Party.

    Peña maintains a comfortable lead over his competitors. Polls in March showed Peña ahead of his closest contender, Vázquez Mota, by more than 10 percentage points. López Obrador remains in third place and does not appear to be advancing. Quadri, for his part, has almost no support in the surveys.

    As Mexican voters appear inclined to return the PRI to power, some argue that the country is losing its faith in democracy. PRI became infamous for its corporatis and clientalist style of government which allowed it to rule Mexico for more than seventy years in what author Jorge Mario Pedro Vargas Llosa, a Nobel laureate, once described the period as one of “perfect dictatorship.” (more…)

  • Mexico’s Peña Looks Certain to Win Presidency

    Polls suggest that Mexico’s once dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party will again claim the presidency in July. The party’s candidate, Enrique Peña Nieto, has a comfortable lead of roughly 20 percent over his closest competitors. Several hiccups and gaffs haven’t significantly damaged his reputation. A possible scandal involving his family could have a negative impact on his popularity yet however.

    Last month, the candidate’s daughter took to Twitter to denounce her father’s critics as “a bunch of morons from the proletariat.” He had been made fun of on social media when he apparently failed to remember any books beyond the Bible that had shaped his thinking and couldn’t mention the prices of basic commodities like tortillas nor the country’s minimum wage.

    If there is a drop in Peña’s approval rating, it will likely recover in the upcoming months as the incidents are forgotten and the elections move closer. Mass online criticism of the candidate has already winded down. So long as Peña and his family refrain from committing more public mistakes, the next polls, which will be conducted in February, could be encouraging for him.

    The media exposure that Peña and his family enjoy, and have helped him propel to frontrunner status, could ultimately work against him if the people grow weary of what the French call the peoplisation of politics. President Nicolas Sarkozy and his celebrity wife Carla Bruni have avoided the spotlights in more recent years after French voters came to perceive their leader’s presence in the headlines and tabloids as unpresidential.

    Peña could suffer the same fate before there are even elections, especially if Mexico’s other political parties exploit this vulnerability and manage to portray him as an unserious candidate who may seem glamorous but lacks the intellectual depth to lead.

    For the conservative National Action Party to mount an effective campaign against Peña, it will soon have to nominate a candidate to succeed incumbent president Felipe Calderón. Former businesswoman Josefina Vázquez Mota is the party’s best option according the polls but it is losing precious time to challenge Peña as long as it fails to nominate her.

    Another potential obstacle to PAN winning the presidency again is the socialist Party of the Democratic Revolution which may be tempted to focus its attacks on the incumbent party, thus splitting the non-PRI vote. If rather they prioritize undermining Peña’s popularity, they may regain competitiveness in the polls ahead of the vote this summer but given PDR’s history of battling the right, a coordinated anti-Peña campaign seems unlikely.

  • Challenges to American-Mexican Security Cooperation

    Texas’ governor Rick Perry recently suggested that Mexico and the United States should cooperate militarily to solve the drug conflict along their border. The comment irked the political leadership in Mexico. Mexico’s ambassador to the United States was very clear when he stated that the possibility was not on the table.

    Although violence is rising and corruption among the Mexican armed forces increasing, there are historical and political reasons for limiting military cooperation between the two North American countries.

    Throughout Latin America, sovereignty has been traditionally been a highly regarded principle. Its countries were forged from independence struggles with European powers. Once independent, arguments which emphasized the protection of territorial integrity and of sovereignty against foreign aggression became factors of social cohesion in these states and helped shape their national identities. They quickly became sacrosanct principles for the young nations. The second wave of colonialism, in Africa and Asia, and the subsequent interventionist policies of the United States during the Cold War only helped to accentuate their importance.

    For Mexicans, speaking of territorial integrity and the United States at the same time is especially contentious. The 1846-1848 Mexican-American War ended in Washington annexing nearly half of Mexican territory. It is an event that every Mexican is taught well in school.

    Friction endured in the twentieth century. Under Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) rule, the bilateral relationship has had more downs than ups. Factions within the party did not bother to hide their discomfort with American foreign policy and publicly supported leftist guerrillas in Central America.

    Improvements in the relationship were rapidly seen when the most technocratic faction within PRI arrived to power and even more when the incumbent National Action Party (PAN) defeated the PRI in 2000. However, security policy and cooperation of both countries is still restrained by arguments of sovereignty.

    Recognizing that drug trafficking is a transnational problem that Mexico cannot confront by itself, the current government has demonstrated a willingness to improve bilateral cooperation in the security area. It agreed to unmanned American drone aircraft patrolling the border and let American agents operate in Mexican airports. These measures were widely criticized by Mexican society however which, by majority, regards American actions within its national territory as tantamount to intervention. Consequently, PAN’s opposition may use their concessions as political weapons. American politicians should bear this in mind, especially as Mexico prepares for presidential elections in 2012.

    Governor Perry may have won some (potential) votes by portraying himself as a hardliner on border issues but he may have also contributed to what appears is a deterioration in the bilateral relationship. The consequences of the secretive and badly planned operation “Fast and Furious,” as well as other ones which the United States Congress has just found about, have already strained interagency ties between both countries, affecting the trust and progress that had been achieved.

    Trust is essential when it comes to security policy and military cooperation between two nation. Mexico won’t end cross-border efforts but isn’t eager to accept more “help” either. Innovative approaches may not be adopted because of Mexico’s reluctance. Yet a return to a more backward thinking may be on the horizon. Opinion polls for next year’s election suggest a victory to the PRI. The party has upheld much more traditionalist views regarding international relations than the PAN.

    This is not to say that the PRI will suddenly retreat the military from the north and pact with the cartels. But it may not be as willing as the PAN to improve security cooperation with the United States

    Presidential elections are still far from now and anything can happen in the meantime. Success on the security front could boost the PAN’s chances of retaining the presidency. If the PRI holds on to high approval rates however, American politicians may want to consider what they say or do to keep from further straining bilateral ties.

  • How One Court Case Upset American-Mexican Relations

    In contemporary American-Mexican relations, decade-old legal proceedings continue to upset amicable ties between two governments that have to closely cooperate to combat human trafficking and a deadly drug trade along their border. The particulars of the case involve a number of complicated legal questions.

    José Ernesto Medellín was a Mexican national, convicted of capital murder under Texas state law and executed in 2008 for his part in the robbery and sexual assault of two minors who were murdered by Medellín and his accomplices to prevent their identification. His case highlighted an important distinction in treaties between nations — self executing and non-self executing, both of which are recognized under international and American law. (more…)

  • Situation on US-Mexican Border Worsening

    America’s southern border is on fire. We have the Mexican government now suing the State of Arizona over its immigration law, which merely upholds and enforces national law — which the federal government refuses to enforce. We have ever increasing kidnapping, murders, theft and violence of every kind along the entire frontier. National Guard troops in Texas seized large caches of weapons from a paramilitary group that was attempting to cross the border. The Mexican government is safely escorting drug runners across the border, into America. And the president can only talk of amnesty and is considering suing Arizona as well?

    The border is literally being attacked, both by paramilitary and actual Mexican military forces. In a recent open letter to President Barack Obama, Jon Voight wrote: “You have brought to Arizona a civil war, once again defending the criminals and illegals, creating a meltdown for good, loyal, law abiding citizens.” Unfortunately, he is right. America is moving ever closer to civil war. Never have we been in danger of such an extremity since we battled over the question of slavery.

    In the photos are weapons seized by American National Guard troops near the Texas border with Mexico. The symbols on the hats and bags are from an organization called Los Zetas, which, according to Wikipedia, is “a criminal organization in Mexico dedicated mostly to international illegal drug trade and other organized crime activitites.”

    This drug cartel was founded by an elite force of assassins from Mexican Army deserters and is now integrated by corrupt ex-federal, state, and local police officers, as well as ex-Kaibiles from Guatemala.

    This group of highly trained gunmen was first hired as a private mercenary army for Mexico’s Gulf Cartel. Since the arrest of the Gulf Cartel’s leader […] the two entities became a combined trafficking force, with the Zetas taking a more active leadership role in drug trafficking. Since February 2010 Los Zetas have gone independent and became enemies of its former employer/partner, the Gulf Cartel.

    Realize as well that the problem is not merely Mexican and Central American drug cartels. A border this porous entices criminals of all types, including terrorists. The borders are a national-security issue, the most fundamental of government responsibilities.

    Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and eventually even the Kool-Aid drinkers of California will have to defend their borders in defense of their lives.