Atlantic Sentinel

Tag: Italian Election 2018

Parliamentary elections were held in Italy on March 4. The anti-establishment Five Star Movement placed first with 227 out of 630 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 112 out of 315 seats in the Senate, followed by the far-right League with 125 and 58 seats. The Atlantic Sentinel endorsed the center-left Democratic Party and center-right Forza Italia.

  • Renzi Resigns, Italy Split Down the Middle, War on the Spanish Right

    Italy’s center-left leader, Matteo Renzi, has stepped down after his Democratic Party fell from first to fourth place in the election on Sunday.

    I argued here in January that Renzi had two challenges: uniting the left and convincing voters he could still deliver reforms.

    He failed at both. He watered down labor reforms in an attempt to appease the left wing of his party, but they walked out anyway. He didn’t secure a supermajority for constitutional reforms, necessitating a referendum to which he then foolishly tied his own political career.

    Renzi did get important things right, not in the least recognizing that the future of the Democratic Party lies not with old working-class voters but with the young and college graduates. Yet he failed to dissuade them from supporting the Five Star Movement. (more…)

  • Grand Coalition Wins Vote in Germany. Next Problem: Italy

    Sigmar Gabriel Angela Merkel
    German party leaders Sigmar Gabriel and Angela Merkel walk to a news conference in Berlin, June 29, 2015 (Bundesregierung)

    In the end, it wasn’t even close. Nearly twice as many German Social Democratic Party members voted in favor of another grand coalition with Angela Merkel’s conservatives as voted against it. The results of the internal poll were announced on Sunday.

    Parliament is due to confirm Merkel for a fourth term as chancellor next week. If she sits this one out, she will be Germany’s longest-ruling leader since Helmut Kohl.

    Neither of the two major parties is out of the woods yet. The Social Democrats have fallen in the polls, losing support to, well, everyone. Merkel’s Christian Democrats are facing competition from the Free Democrats on the right and the Alternative on the far right. The party will debate in the coming years whether to continue Merkel’s centrist line or lurch to the right.

    For now, though, the center can still hold. (more…)

  • No Party or Coalition Wins Majority in Italy

    • Italians elected a new parliament on Sunday.
    • The populist Five Star Movement and (formerly Northern) League made gains at the expense of mainstream parties.
    • Neither the combined right nor a left-right coalition of Matteo Renzi’s Democrats and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia would have a majority. (more…)

  • Left-Right Coalition Would Be Best Outcome for Italy

    Matteo Renzi
    Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi answers questions from reporters in Berlin, Germany, July 1, 2015 (Palazzo Chigi)

    There are two realistic outcomes to Italy’s election on Sunday: a right-wing government that includes the xenophobic Brothers of Italy and Northern League or a German-style grand coalition between Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and the Democrats.

    The second would be better for Italy and for Europe. To make that outcome more likely, Italians should vote for the center-left. (more…)

  • Trump Launches Trade War, Berlusconi Confirms Tajani Candidacy

    Donald Trump Angela Merkel
    American president Donald Trump speaks with German chancellor Angela Merkel at the G20 summit in Hamburg, July 6, 2017 (Bundesregierung)

    Against the advice of literally all but two of his advisors, American president Donald Trump has announced tariffs on aluminum and steel of 10 and 25 percent, respectively.

    The tariffs are not in effect yet, but, citing national-security concerns, the president does have the authority to impose them unilaterally.

    The European Commission, which is responsible for EU trade policy, quickly condemned the “blatant intervention to protect US domestic industry” and said it would present countermeasures in a matter of days.

    Remember when we were talking about a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership only a few years ago?

    Politico has more on the challenge to Europe. Also read my story from July about Trump’s obsession with dying industries at the expense of retail and tech. (more…)

  • Merkel Wins Party’s Support, Berlusconi a Warning to Americans

    Angela Merkel
    German chancellor Angela Merkel arrives in Meise, Belgium to meet with other European conservative party leaders, December 19, 2013 (EPP)

    Delegates (not party members) of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) have voted overwhelmingly in favor of continuing the “grand coalition” with the Social Democrats. The waiting is now for the latter, who conclude a membership vote on Sunday.

    The same CDU congress has named Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the moderate prime minister of Saarland, as party secretary and Jens Spahn, a right-wing critic of Angela Merkel’s immigration policy, as candidate for health minister.

    Jeremy Cliffe argues in The Economist that the two appointments hint at a healthy ideological debate in the party:

    In recent years, Mrs Merkel’s electorally successful, highly tactical and ideologically indistinct brand of centrism has smothered the contrasts between [the CDU’s] different ideological tendencies: liberal, Christian social and conservative. Now, however, a new period of cut-and-thrust in the party seems to be emerging.

    (more…)

  • Dutch Hope for Smooth Brexit, Russians Have Little Faith in Trump

    Mehreen Khan reports for the Financial Times that the Dutch are lobbying both sides in the Brexit negotiations: They are pleading with the Brits to decide what they want and trying to ensure in Brussels that the United Kingdom is given plenty of room to reverse course or rethink red lines, whether it be on the customs union or anything else.

    The reason: close relations across the North Sea.

    Britain’s erstwhile continental ally has been a reliable partner on everything from EU budget contributions to the single market but is now uniquely exposed to the economic and emotional side-effects of Brexit.

    In France, by contrast, attitudes have hardened. Since Emmanuel Macron’s election last summer, the share of French voters who wish the British would change their minds has fallen. Tony Barber argues that Brexit is now seen as not a loss but a potential gain to France. (more…)

  • Italian Election Guide

    Italian parliament Rome
    Palazzo Montecitorio, seat of the Italian parliament, in Rome (Shutterstock)

    Italians will elect a new parliament on March 4. Here is everything you need to know about the election. (more…)

  • Nobody Is Happy in Germany, League Calls for Italian Euro Exit

    German parliament Berlin
    Reichstag in Berlin, Germany (Unsplash/Fionn Große)

    Nobody in Germany is happy with the deal Angela Merkel struck with the Social Democrats this week.

    Politico reports that conservatives are upset she gave the Finance Ministry to the left. The party’s youth wing is openly calling for Merkel’s replacement.

    The Financial Times reports that Martin Schulz is testing his Social Democratic Party’s (SPD) unity by joining the new government as foreign minister.

    Tilman Pradt argued here the other day that Schulz has wasted away his credibility by reneging on his promise never to serve under Merkel. “Given the fate of its sister parties in Europe,” Pradt wrote, “the SPD should have been aware of the dangers of putting personal ambitions over party politics.” (more…)

  • Six Economic Challenges for Italy’s Next Government

    Milan Italy
    Piazza del Duomo in Milan, Italy, November 24, 2009 (Bjørn Giesenbauer)

    Valentina Romei reports for the Financial Times that, despite economic improvements, Italy is still a laggard among its European peers.

    She lists six economic challenges for the country’s next government.

    1. Slow growth: Italy is one of the few rich countries where output has not yet returned to pre-crisis levels.
    2. Low productivity: Means businesses need more and more workers to produce the same value of output as in other major economies.
    3. High public debt: Now 132 percent of GDP, making Italy’s the third-highest public debt in the developed world, after Japan and Greece.
    4. High bank debt: Italian banks make up the EU’s largest slice of non-performing loans, which curtail banks’ ability to lend.
    5. Youth unemployment: One in three Italians under the age of 25 are out of work. Italy also has second-lowest employment rate of recent graduates in the EU after Greece.
    6. Low foreign investment: Reforms have made it easier to start and run a business, but investment has yet to catch up. (more…)

  • Politics Isn’t Fair, Italian Edition

    Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi answers questions from reporters in Rome, December 10, 2015
    Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi answers questions from reporters in Rome, December 10, 2015 (Palazzo Chigi)

    Giuliano Ferrara, founding editor the center-right daily Il Foglio, writes about the Italian election for Politico:

    • The center-left Democrats have governed the country capably. Many of the structural reforms recommended by the EU have been implemented. Unemployment is falling. Incomes, investment and productivity are up. As a consequence… the party is highly unpopular.
    • The anti-establishment Five Star Movement has failed over and over again, most spectacularly in the city government of Rome. So… they are the single most popular party.
    • On the right, Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini have failed to provide the appearance of being anything but a motley crew hastily assembled around a patchy political program. And because of that… they are viewed as the safest, most responsible choice.

  • Italian Parties Putin-Friendly, But Policy Shift Unlikely

    Italy’s election can’t keep Vladimir Putin up at night. No matter which party comes out on top, the Russian leader can expect a friendly government in Rome.

    • The center-left Democrats may be the least Russophile of the four major parties, but they still have a soft spot for Russia. Their leader, Matteo Renzi, threatened to block the renewal of EU sanctions in 2015. Federica Mogherini, the EU foreign-policy coordinator, has been criticized by Eastern Europeans and NGOs for not taking a hard enough line against Russia.
    • Silvio Berlusconi, the former prime minister and leader of Forza Italia, is on famously good terms with Putin.
    • His allies in the Northern League — who, in turn, ally with Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France — are openly sympathetic of Putin, whom they see as a defender of traditional, Christian values.
    • The populist Five Star Movement no longer wants to take Italy out of NATO but still calls for a reduced role in the alliance as well as an immediate end to sanctions. (more…)

  • Italy’s Renzi Has Failed on Two Counts

    Matteo Renzi
    Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi answers questions from reporters in Modena, September 17, 2015 (Palazzo Chigi)

    When Matteo Renzi won back control of Italy’s Democratic Party a year ago, I argued he had two challenges:

    1. Uniting the left.
    2. Convincing voters who are desperate for reform that he could still deliver.

    He has failed on both counts. (more…)

  • The Pros and Cons of a Flat Tax in Italy

    Rome Italy
    Ponte Vittorio Emanuele II in Rome, Italy (iStock/Spooh)

    Center-right parties in Italy, led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, call for a flat tax of 15 to 20 percent.

    The single rate would replace the current five income tax brackets and possibly the two business taxes (national and regional).

    Renato Brunetta, leader of Berlusconi’s Forza Italia in the lower house of parliament, tells the Financial Times:

    It’s the fiscal shock that will make Italy emerge from the trap it’s been in for the past decades.

    Here are the pros and cons. (more…)

  • Italy’s Right Makes Pact, Democrats Open Door to Grand Coalition

    Italy’s two other right-wing parties have given into a demand from the leader of the anti-immigrant Northern League, Matteo Salvini, for a “pact” against “shady deals” with the center-left.

    A joint manifesto unveiled this weekend promises lower taxes, lower immigration and the reversal of a long-overdue raise in the pension age.

    Salvini has ruled out deals with centrists, saying the “three legs” of the conservative movement — counting his own party, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and the smaller Brothers of Italy — are enough to win the election in March.

    The three are polling at close to 40 percent support, which may be enough to form a government. (more…)