Atlantic Sentinel

Tag: German Election 2021

Federal elections were held in Germany on September 26. Chancellor Angela Merkel did not seek a fifth term. Her Union of Christian Democrats posted its worst result since 1953. The Social Democrats (SPD) became the largest party for the first time since 2005. The Atlantic Sentinel endorsed the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), who placed fourth.

  • Political Fragmentation Hasn’t Weakened Germany

    German parliament Berlin
    Debate in the plenary chamber of the German parliament in Berlin, July 1, 2020 (Pixabay)

    When Germany’s Christian Democrats and Social Democrats — who frequently split up to 90 percent of the votes between them during the Cold War era — fell to a combined 50 percent support in the federal election in September, alarm bells went off across the Atlantic.

    The New York Times saw “messier politics” and “weaker leadership” ahead. The Washington Post feared a period of “limbo” as a result of Germany’s “Dutchification”. Harold James, a professor at Princeton University, lamented that Germany had acquired “the most destructive features of politics in neighboring countries.” The consequences, he argued, would be “complexity,” “endless negotiations” and “inevitably complicated coalition agreements.” Damon Linker, a columnist for The Week, predicted forming a “stable” government would be “challenging” and “decisive action” more difficult.

    Some people never learn. We saw the same reaction after the European elections in 2019, and again when Stefan Löfven lost his parliamentary majority in Sweden this summer. Yet Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and liberals were able to quickly form a working majority in the European Parliament and Löfven remains prime minister.

    Germany’s liberals and Greens — who can help either the Christian Democrats or Social Democrats to a majority — have already done a deal between them, clearing the biggest hurdle to a three-party coalition. Negotiations are now underway. Olaf Scholz, the Social Democratic Party leader, could become chancellor in a few weeks. So much for the “limbo” we were told to expect. (more…)

  • The Return of European Social Democracy

    Olaf Scholz
    German Social Democratic Party leader Olaf Scholz attends a conference in Berlin, June 25 (PES)

    Olaf Scholz has given German social democracy a new lease on life. For the first time in sixteen years, his Social Democratic Party (SPD) — Germany’s oldest — has defeated the center-right Union of Christian Democrats. Support for the SPD went up from 20.5 to 26 percent in the election on Sunday. Still below its pre-reunification heights, when it would routinely win up to 40 percent, but enough to make Scholz the most likely next chancellor.

    His counterparts in Portugal and Spain have been equally successful. António Costa was reelected with 36 percent support in 2019. Pedro Sánchez won two elections that year. Both govern with the support of the far left. Four of the five Nordic countries are led by social democrats. The fifth, Norway, soon will be, after Labor won the election two weeks ago.

    It wasn’t so long ago that commentators ruminated on the “death of European social democracy,” myself included. Now it’s back in swing in the north, south and center. What changed? (more…)

  • Outlines of a Green-Liberal Pact for Germany

    Germany’s Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) are taking the lead in forming the next coalition government.

    The two parties won a combined 120 seats in the election on Sunday, more than either the Social Democrats (SPD), who placed first, or the Union of Christian Democrats, who came in second. They would still need one of the two bigger parties for a majority. The Greens would prefer to team up with the SPD. The liberal FDP would prefer a coalition with the Union.

    The best way to avoid gridlock is for the smaller parties to do a deal first and then see whether the SPD or Union could support it.

    Here’s what such a deal might look like. (more…)

  • German Election: Takeaways and Next Steps

    German parliament Berlin
    Reichstag building in Berlin, Germany, July 5, 2021 (Unsplash/Kristijan Arsov)

    Germans returned at least six parties to parliament on Sunday (counting the “Union” of Christian Democrats as one). The fate of The Left still hangs in the balance. Projections give the former communists exactly the 5 percent support they need to meet the electoral threshold.

    The most likely outcome is a three-party government including the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens. The question is whether the Social Democrats (SPD) or Union will lead it.

    If you haven’t been reading our live election blog, this explainer will get you up to speed on the results, takeaways and next steps. (more…)

  • Merkel’s Party Loses German Election, Left and Liberals Gain

    • Outgoing chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union lost the election on Sunday.
    • The center-left Social Democrats (SPD) became the largest party for the first time since 2005.
    • The Greens and liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) made gains.
    • Three parties will probably be needed to form the next German government. (more…)

  • Sixteen Years in Power: Merkel’s Successes and Failures

    Angela Merkel
    German chancellor Angela Merkel answers questions from reporters in Berlin, November 9, 2016 (Bundesregierung)

    Angela Merkel is not seeking reelection on Sunday after ruling Germany for sixteen years. (She remains chancellor until a new government is formed.)

    Here is an overview of the most important policies of her four governments — and her biggest failures. (more…)

  • German Left Has Wrong Ideas for Housing Market

    Berlin Germany
    View of Berlin, Germany from Alexanderplatz, March 28, 2020 (Unsplash/Stefan Widua)

    Housing is one of the top issues in the German election on Sunday. Proposals reveal a traditional left-right divide: the Social Democrats and Greens seek to rein in prices with rent controls; the Christian Democrats and liberal Free Democrats call for more construction, including by relaxing planning laws and other regulatory requirements.

    Coinciding with the federal election, a referendum in Berlin will decide whether the city-state expropriates about 200,000 homes.

    The proposal is for private landlords owning more than 3,000 properties to be “socialized”. Supporters argue this would lower prices, as the houses would no longer need to be profitable, but this betrays a simplistic understanding of the market. If the government makes it impossible for developers and landlords to turn a profit, they will develop and rent out fewer apartments and the housing shortage will grow, not shrink.

    That’s exactly what happened when Berlin froze rents last year: the number of apartments on the market dropped 57 percent. Owners kept their flats empty while the Constitutional Court reviewed the new law. It ruled in April that the freeze was unlawful. Renters had to suddenly pay a year’s worth of missed rent increases.

    Now left-wing parties want to try the same nationally. (more…)

  • Liberals Would Lend Urgency to Next German Government

    Christian Lindner
    German Free Democratic Party leader Christian Lindner makes a speech in parliament in Berlin (Kevin Schneider)

    With Germany’s Christian Democrats and Social Democrats neck and neck in the polls, and the Greens not far behind, no single party or combination of two parties is projected to win a majority in the election on Sunday. Germans should vote for the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and make them kingmakers in the next Bundestag.

    The liberals balked at a pact with the Christian Democrats and Greens in 2017, fearing that concessions to the center and left would prevent them from prying away voters from the far-right Alternative for Germany. They have wisely abandoned that strategy. Center-right parties across Europe have tried and failed to win back voters from the nationalist right by mimicking their policies and rhetoric. It’s unconvincing. The parties that did find their way back, like the Christian Social Union of Bavaria, did so by being true by their convictions.

    The Free Democrats, in their manifesto as well as their campaign, have been outspokenly liberal, calling for equal adoption rights for gay couples, protecting personal data, reducing publicly-funded media to news and documentaries, and restricting unemployment benefits. These aren’t priorities for other parties, which is why the FDP needs to get back into power. (more…)

  • German Election Guide

    German parliament Berlin
    Reichstag in Berlin, Germany (Unsplash/Fionn Große)

    Germans elect a new Bundestag on Sunday, which will elect Angela Merkel’s successor. It is the first time in postwar German history that a sitting chancellor isn’t seeking reelection.

    If the polls are right, Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrats will lose power to the center-left Social Democrats for the first time since 2005.

    Here is everything you need to know. (more…)

  • Scholz Should Stay the Course

    Olaf Scholz
    German finance minister Olaf Scholz attends a debate in parliament in Berlin, July 8, 2018 (Bundestag/Inga Kjer)

    Germany’s Christian Democrats are panicking. I wrote here last week that the unimpressive Armin Laschet is dragging Angela Merkel’s party down. All the opinion polls published since then have put the Social Democrats in the lead with 23 to 27 percent support, compared to 19-22 percent for the conservatives. The Greens and liberal Free Democrats are in third and fourth place.

    Until a few months ago, the expectation in Berlin was that the Christian Democrats would swap the Social Democrats for the Greens in the next government. Now a two-party coalition is unlikely, and there is even a chance the Christian Democrats will lose power altogether. (more…)

  • Laschet Is Dragging Germany’s Christian Democrats Down

    Armin Laschet
    Minister President Armin Laschet of North Rhine-Westphalia attends a meeting of the German Federal Council in Berlin, December 18, 2020 (Bundesrat/Sascha Radke)

    It’s too soon to tell you I told you so. The German election is still a month away. But it is starting to look like the ruling Christian Democrats made a mistake nominating Armin Laschet, the prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, for the chancellorship.

    Laschet would succeed Angela Merkel, who is not seeking a fifth term after sixteen years in power.

    I argued in December and April that Markus Söder, the prime minister of Bavaria, was the better candidate.

    The Christian Democrats misread the national mood. They looked at Merkel’s high approval rating and thought Germans wanted more of the same. They don’t. Söder could have given the conservatives a fresh start. (more…)

  • What’s at Stake in the German Election

    German parliament Berlin
    Reichstag in Berlin, Germany (Unsplash/Fionn Große)

    Germans elect a new Bundestag on September 26. Outgoing chancellor Angela Merkel is not seeking reelection after serving four terms. Her center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is polling in first place, but the left-wing Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens are not far behind.

    Three more parties (counting the union of Merkel’s CDU and Bavaria’s Christian Social Union as one) are expected to win seats: the center-right Free Democrats (FDP), the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the far-left Die Linke.

    The outgoing “grand coalition” of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats may not defend its majority. More importantly, neither wants to form another two-party government after sharing power for twelve of the last sixteen years.

    All other parties rule out pacts with the AfD. The Greens, who are projected to be the biggest winners of the election, would be needed in all possible coalitions:

    • Union + Greens + FDP: Failed in 2017, when the liberals balked. Could be a modernizing, pro-EU government that seeks technological solutions to the climate crisis.
    • Union + SPD + Greens: Less attractive to the Christian Democrats on labor and tax policy, but the Union and SPD see eye to eye on protecting industries and jobs.
    • SPD + Greens + FDP: Makes less sense for the FDP, who would face opposition from the center- and far right.
    • SPD + Greens + Linke: Politically risky for SPD and Greens, who want to appear moderate, and difficult policy-wise on defense and foreign relations.

    Here’s where the four mainstream parties stand on ten of the issues at stake in this election. (more…)

  • Germans Long for Change

    Armin Laschet
    Minister President Armin Laschet of North Rhine-Westphalia attends a meeting of the German Federal Council in Berlin, December 18, 2020 (Bundesrat/Sascha Radke)

    Germans want change. 61.5 percent would like to see a different government after the election in September, according to an Allensbach Institute poll; the highest share in thirty years. 67 percent believe it is time for a course correction in policy.

    The findings are sobering for the ruling Christian Democrats, who have nominated the more-of-the-same Armin Laschet for the chancellorship. The prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia proposes continuity from sixteen years of Angela Merkel. (I think the conservatives should have nominated the far more popular and semi-outsider Markus Söder of Bavaria.)

    They are also the reason support for the Greens has been trending up. Recent surveys put the party — which has never been Germany’s largest — neck and neck with the center-right. (more…)

  • Why Germany’s Greens Are on the Rise

    Annalena Baerbock
    German Green party leader Annalena Baerbock gives a speech in Berlin, February 17 (DPA/Kay Nietfeld)

    Germany’s Greens have for the first time in two years overtaken the ruling Christian Democrats in the polls. Two surveys in the last week gave them 28 percent support for the election in September against 21 to 27 percent for the center-right.

    Those polls are still outliers, but the gap between the parties has been narrowing across surveys for months.

    I suspect two factors are at play: leadership and a desire for change. I’ll take those in turn before laying out the different ways in which the Greens could take power. (more…)

  • German Right Picks Unpopular Laschet to Succeed Merkel

    Armin Laschet
    Minister President Armin Laschet of North Rhine-Westphalia makes a speech in the German Federal Council in Berlin, December 14, 2018 (Bundesrat/Sascha Radke)

    Armin Laschet will lead Germany’s Christian Democrats into the September election. His rival, Markus Söder, bowed out after the executive committee of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the larger of the two “Union” parties, threw its weight behind Laschet in a late-night vote.

    Following seven hours of debate about whether and how to vote, 31 of the committee’s 46 members backed Laschet in the early hours of Tuesday.

    The alliance of the CDU, which competes in fifteen of Germany’s sixteen states, and Bavaria’s Christian Social Union (CSU) does not have a formal procedure for electing its joint chancellor candidate. (more…)