Atlantic Sentinel

Tag: German Election 2017

Federal elections were held in Germany on September 24. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union placed first with 246 out of 709 seats, down 65. The far-right Alternative for Germany crossed the 5 percent electoral threshold for the first time. The Atlantic Sentinel endorsed the liberal Free Democrats, who returned to the Bundestag with 80 seats.

  • Election Reveals Brexit- and Trump-Like Cleavages in Germany

    German parliament Berlin
    Reichstag in Berlin, Germany (Unsplash/Fionn Große)

    Germany’s federal election revealed many of the same cleavages we have seen in America, Britain and France, Alexander Roth and Guntram B. Wolff report for the Bruegel think tank:

    • Urban-rural split: Support for the far-right Alternative for Germany party was low in the cities but high in the countryside.
    • Old versus young: Districts with a higher share of elderly voters were more supportive of the Alternative.
    • Education: There is a strong correlation here. The better educated Germans are, the less likely they were to vote for the Alternative.
    • Income: Higher disposable household income is associated with lower support for the Alternative, however, areas with high unemployment were also less likely to vote for the far right. (more…)

  • German Election Shows Stabilizing Effect of Multiparty Democracy

    Angela Merkel
    German chancellor Angela Merkel waits for other leaders to arrive at the G7 summit in Bavaria, June 8, 2015 (Bundesregierung)

    The headline-grabbing news from Germany this weekend was the return of the far right, which won seats in the national parliament for the first time since 1961.

    But the bigger — and more reassuring — story of the election was the fragmentation of the German political landscape.

    The Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, once faraway the two largest parties, won only 56 percent of the seats combined. A record seven parties (counting the Bavarian Christian Social Union separately) crossed the 5-percent election threshold. Four parties will probably be needed to form a coalition government — another first in postwar German history.

    This might look like instability, but it actually underscores the resilience of multiparty democracy. (more…)

  • Germany’s Social Democrats Should Have Picked Side

    Martin Schulz
    German Social Democratic Party leader Martin Schulz makes a speech in Bavaria, March 1 (Bayern SPD/Joerg Koch)

    Germany’s Social Democrats are going the way of the Dutch Labor Party.

    Both parties tried to appeal to their working- and middle-class constituents in elections this year and both lost precisely because of this indecision.

    Campaigning on liberal immigration laws, social justice and international engagement alienates blue-collar voters.

    Campaigning on border controls and deemphasizing identity politics turns away college graduates.

    Do both at the same time and you end up with with no supporters at all. (more…)

  • Americans Largely Uninterested in German Election

    Donald Trump Angela Merkel
    American president Donald Trump speaks with German chancellor Angela Merkel at the G20 summit in Hamburg, July 6 (Bundesregierung)

    In America, the German election is mostly being ignored.

    Our media today are tightly focused on the ongoing controversy regarding President Donald Trump, NFL players, free speech and the national anthem.

    In previous weeks, the endless health-care saga and unusually hasty hurricane season stole the headlines.

    These issues are dramatic and tangible to Americans. The German election is viewed more as procedural than exciting or impactful. (more…)

  • “Jamaica” Coalition Looks Like Only Option in Germany

    Angela Merkel
    German chancellor Angela Merkel attends a meeting with other European conservative party leaders in Brussels, December 13, 2012 (EPP)

    A three-party coalition of Christian Democrats, Free Democrats and Greens looks like the only possibility short of minority government in Germany.

    Such a combination, unprecedented at the federal level, is nicknamed “Jamaica” because the parties’ colors are black, yellow and green. (more…)

  • Merkel Wins Reelection But Will Need More Parties to Govern

    • Germany could see a three-party “Jamaica” coalition after its election on Sunday.
    • Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union lost support but are still the largest party.
    • The Social Democrats (SPD) suffered an historic defeat and have ruled out continuing the left-right “grand coalition”.
    • The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has become the third party with strong support from the formerly communist East.
    • The liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) returned to parliament after falling under the electoral threshold in 2013. (more…)

  • German Election Day Live Blog and Reading List

    On Sunday, the Atlantic Sentinel will provide live analysis and commentary of the election in Germany.

    Our focus will be on opinion. We won’t be competing with big-name outlets to bring you the latest news, although we will of course report the most important results.

    We’ll be reading German, European and international coverage of the election and share (and where necessary translate) interesting takes. And we’ll have our own team of contributors to give you their perspective.

    I hope you’ll join us! We’ll kick off around 3 in the afternoon Central European Time. (more…)

  • Social Democrats in Germany Make Same Mistake as Dutch

    Alexis Tsipras Martin Schulz
    Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and European Parliament president Martin Schulz answer questions from reporters in Brussels, February 4, 2015 (European Parliament)

    Germany’s Social Democrats are making the same mistake as the Dutch Labor Party, I argue in the Netherlands’ NRC newspaper this week.

    Like Labor, which went down from 25 to 6 percent support in the most recent election, the Social Democrats are trying to appeal to both working- and middle-class supporters. It is that indecision that is turning both groups away from them.

    College-educated voters in the city see the benefits of open borders in Europe and free trade with the rest of the world. Low-skilled workers and small towns feel the downsides. Progressives obsess about gay rights and gender issues that animate few blue-collar voters. (more…)

  • Liberal Free Democrats Would Keep Merkel Sharp

    Christian Lindner
    German Free Democratic Party leader Christian Lindner makes a speech in parliament in Berlin (Kevin Schneider)

    There is little doubt Angela Merkel will win reelection in Germany on Sunday. Her Christian Democrats are projected to win up to 40 percent support against 25 percent for the second party, the Social Democrats.

    The two could continue to share power in a “grand coalition”, but we’re hoping the liberal Free Democrats will win enough seats to help form a center-right government instead.

    Polls suggest that the two parties might just fall short of a majority. Conservative and liberal voters who want to keep the left out of power ought to give the Free Democrats their support. (more…)

  • Center-Right Voters Eager to Govern in Germany, Center-Left Unsure

    Center-right voters in Germany hope Angela Merkel’s next coalition government will unite her Christian Democrats and the liberal Free Democrats. But if the Greens are needed for a majority, they could live with that, the latest Deutschlandtrend poll shows.

    Green party voters are less interested in a three-party coalition but surprisingly supportive of a deal with the right: 68 percent would join a Merkel-led administration.

    The Christian Democrats are almost certain to remain the largest party, but it’s unclear from the polls if the Free Democrats will win enough seats to form a two-party government.

    The Social Democrats, the second largest party, aren’t desperate for another “grand coalition”. Half their voters would prefer to go into opposition rather than share power with Merkel for another four years. (more…)

  • Highlights and Takeaways from the Merkel-Schulz Debate

    German chancellor Angela Merkel debated Martin Schulz, the leader of the Social Democrats, on television tonight. It was the party leaders’ only debate before the election later this month.

    Here are my highlights and takeaways. (more…)

  • German Election Guide

    German parliament Berlin
    Reichstag in Berlin, Germany (Unsplash/Fionn Große)

    Federal elections will be held in Germany on September 24. This guide contains everything you need to know about them. (more…)

  • Comparing German Party Platforms Reveals Two Divides

    David Cameron Angela Merkel
    British prime minister David Cameron and German chancellor Angela Merkel answer questions from reporters in Berlin, May 29, 2015 (10 Downing Street/Arron Hoare)

    Comparing the platforms of the six parties competing in the German election reveals two divides:

    1. The first is between the traditional left and right on spending and taxes. The Social Democrats, Greens and far-left Die Linke want higher taxes on the wealthy to fund public investment. The Christian Democrats, liberal Free Democrats and nativist Alternative argue for tax cuts.
    2. The second divide is between the four mainstream parties and the extremes on defense and foreign policy. The Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats all support closer European integration and NATO. The Alternative wants out of the euro. Die Linke would swap NATO for a security pact with Russia.

    Here is a closer look at where the parties stand on defense, Europe, immigration, spending and taxes. (more…)

  • Germany’s Social Democrats Need to Pick Side in Culture War

    Social democrats across Europe are caught in the middle of a culture war: they have middle-class voters, many of them university-educated, whose economic and social views range from liberal to progressive, as well as working-class voters, whose views range from the conservative to the nativist.

    Germany’s are trying to bridge this divide, but a report by the Financial Times from the heart of the Ruhr industrial area does not suggest they are succeeding.

    Guido Reil, a coalminer from Essen and former town councilor for the Social Democrats who switched to the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany, says his old party has “lost its connection to real people.”

    They don’t speak their language. They’re people who have never worked, they’re all careerists and professional politicians.

    Blue-collar voters — a shrinking demographic — only make up 17 percent of the Social Democrats’ electorate anymore. (more…)

  • The Question in Germany: Who Will Govern with Merkel Next?

    Angela Merkel
    German chancellor Angela Merkel attends a meeting with other European conservative party leaders in Brussels, December 13, 2012 (EPP)

    Germany’s Christian Democrats are so far ahead in the opinion polls that the only question seems to be who will govern with them after the election?

    Support for Angela Merkel’s party has been just short of 40 percent since May. The Social Democrats, who briefly polled neck and neck with the conservatives earlier in the year, are down to 25 percent.

    The Greens, liberal Free Democrats, far-left Die Linke and far-right Alternative für Deutschland would split the remainder of the vote.

    Unless the numbers change dramatically between now and September, Merkel would have three ways to stay in power:

    1. A continuation of her “grand coalition” with the Social Democrats;
    2. A center-right coalition with the Free Democrats; or
    3. A center-left coalition with the Greens.

    A right-wing pact with the Alternative can be ruled out. (more…)