Atlantic Sentinel

Tag: French Elections 2017

Presidential and parliamentary elections were held in France between April and June 2017. François Hollande, the Socialist incumbent, did not seek reelection. The Atlantic Sentinel endorsed the liberal Emmanuel Macron, who defeated the far-right Marine Le Pen with 66 against 34 percent support. His party won a majority of 350 out of 577 seats in the National Assembly.

  • Corbyn, Sanders, Hamon. Has the Left Given Up?

    The triumph of the relatively unknown Benoît Hamon in the French Socialist presidential primary last weekend has inspired comparisons with fellow leftists Jeremy Corbyn in the United Kingdom and Bernie Sanders in the United States.

    The comparison is imprecise. Hamon’s vanquished primary opponent, Arnaud Montebourg, had more in common with Corbyn. Both are nostalgic for the times when blue-collar jobs paid well, trade unions were powerful and the welfare state was at its most generous.

    Hamon is more forward-looking. His signature policies are a universal basic income funded by a tax on robots. Neither would be implemented overnight — if ever — but he is thinking about novel ways to preserve France’s high living standards at a time when many jobs may be automated or outsourced.

    Low-skilled workers are already struggling to make a living under globalization. What if high-skilled, white-collar professionals are next? The solution is surely not a return to the 1970s.

    All of which is not to say Hamon is more electable than Corbyn or Sanders. If anything, it’s their inability to win elections that really unites the three. (more…)

  • Hamon, Valls Push Montebourg Out of French Presidential Contest

    • Former education minister Benoît Hamon and former prime minister Manuel Valls have won the first voting round in the French Socialist Party’s presidential primary.
    • Arnaud Montebourg, a former industry minister, finished third. He has endorsed his fellow leftist Hamon.
    • Polls suggest Valls, a social democrat, would be more competitive in a general election. (more…)

  • Valls Jeopardizes His Credibility as a Reformer by Tilting to the Left

    With two weeks to go until the French Socialists elect their presidential candidate, Manuel Valls is not so subtly tilting to the left.

    The former prime minister, who made a name for himself as a reformer, now says neither the 35-hour workweek nor France’s high wealth taxes need to be reformed after all.

    Valls’ concessions to the left make short-term political sense. Benoît Hamon and Arnaud Montebourg, two far-left firebrands, are up in the polls. Valls is still the favorite to win the nomination, but only narrowly. Recent surveys suggest he could struggle in a second voting round against either of his opponents.

    But he takes a longer-term risk.

    Valls’ electability in a general election would hinge on his credibility as a social democrat. If he veers too far to the left, true believers may decide there is no point in supporting him anymore over Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the otherwise hopeless far-left candidate, while more moderate center-left voters could defect to Emmanuel Macron, the former economy minister under Valls who is running as an independent. (more…)

  • French Socialists Could Make Same Mistake as Britain’s

    Surveys suggest the French Socialists could make the same mistake as the British Labour Party and lurch to the left next year, taking themselves out of contention for the presidential and parliamentary elections that due in April and May.

    Arnaud Montebourg, a fierce anticapitalist and former economy minister, is neck and neck with Prime Minister Manuel Valls, the center-left candidate, in the polls.

    Ifop and Harris Interactive both give Valls 51 percent support in a hypothetical runoff against 49 percent for Montebourg.

    Two Ipsos surveys conducted earlier this year put Montebourg ahead.

    There is little doubt these two men will prevail in the first voting round. (more…)

  • After Hollande Steps Aside, Valls Is the Only Serious Candidate

    François Hollande bowed to reality on Thursday, when the Socialist Party leader announced he would not seek a second term as president of France.

    No leader in the history of the Fifth Republic has been less popular than Hollande, whose approval rating hit a 4-percent low in one survey last month.

    Hollande squandered what little goodwill he had left when Un président ne devrait pas dire ça… (“A President Should Not Say That…”) appeared last month: a tell-all book in which the outgoing president is quoted disparaging other Socialist Party bigwigs, including his prime minister, Manuel Valls, and foreign minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault.

    Both were reportedly outraged by the publication, which dumbfounded the entire French political class. It will only help cement Hollande’s legacy as an inapt and feckless president, who failed to balance competing interest in the ruling Socialist Party and was unable to revitalize the French economy.

    Unemployment, at 10 percent, is at the same level as when Hollande took office in 2012. Growth has been lackluster ever since. (more…)

  • By June, France Will Have a More Pro-Russian President

    François Fillon
    Former French prime minister François Fillon meets with other European conservative party leaders in Brussels, March 1, 2012 (EPP)

    The victory of François Fillon in the French center-right primary on Sunday means that, barring a major surprise, he will fight the second round of May’s presidential election against the far right’s Marine Le Pen.

    This, in turn, guarantees that by June, France will have a president who, if not openly pro-Russian, has considerable sympathies for the views of Vladimir Putin. (more…)

  • Conservative Fillon Triumphs in French Center-Right Primary

    • French conservatives on Sunday nominated former prime minister François Fillon as their presidential candidate.
    • Alain Juppé, another former prime minister, lost the second voting round in the Republicans’ first-ever presidential primary with 33 to 67 percent support.
    • Given the unpopularity of the ruling Socialist Party, Fillon is now the favorite to win the presidency in 2017. (more…)

  • François Fillon Leads Revolt of France’s “Discreet Bourgeoisie”

    François Fillon
    Former French prime minister François Fillon meets with other European conservative party leaders in Brussels, March 1, 2012 (EPP)

    François Fillon’s unexpectedly strong showing in the French center-right’s primary last weekend has send shockwaves through the French political establishment.

    Fillon’s remaining opponent, Alain Juppé — another former prime minister — has lashed out at what he calls a “brutal” economic program and a “conservative, backward-looking” vision for the country.

    Fillon isn’t shying away from the label “Thatcherite”, which was once toxic in France. He wants to cut benefits and public-sector jobs in order to bring government spending down from 57 to under 50 percent of gross domestic product. He is also campaigning on longer working hours, a higher retirement age and €40 billion worth of tax cuts for businesses.

    That’s more radical than what Juppé has in mind, but both men want to roll back the French welfare state and eliminate taxes and restrictive labor policies that make the country less competitive than its neighbors.

    It’s on social issues where they truly diverge — and the differences between them reflect a divided France. (more…)

  • For French Right, Juppé Is the Safe Choice

    Alain Juppé
    French foreign minister Alain Juppé gives a speech at the Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland, February 27, 2012 (UN/Jean-Marc Ferré)

    There is a good chance François Fillon will prevail in the second round of the French center-right presidential primary next weekend. The former premier got 44 percent support in the first voting round on Sunday.

    His closest rival, Alain Juppé, got 28 percent. Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president, received less than 21 percent support, forcing him out of the race.

    It seems unlikely many of Sarkozy’s voters will switch to Juppé. Fillon takes a harder line on immigration and identity issues. Like Sarkozy, he also favors rapprochement with Russia.

    Juppé, by contrast, emphasizes the need to heal divisions in French society and has spoken out against the right’s “Russophilia”.

    Fillon would by no means be a weak general-election candidate. If he faces off the far right’s Marine Le Pen in the second voting round of the presidential election next year, he would probably win. Few polls give Le Pen more than 40 percent support.

    But if a candidate from the center-left made it into the runoff instead, Fillon could not be sure of victory. Juppé’s chances would be higher. (more…)

  • First Presidential Primary in France Becomes Sarkozy’s Downfall

    Nicolas Sarkozy
    Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy meets with other European conservative party leaders in Brussels, February 18 (EPP)

    The political comeback of former French president Nicolas Sarkozy came to an abrupt halt on Sunday night, when he placed a disappointing third in the contest for his party’s 2017 presidential nomination.

    Sarkozy had been expected to quality for a runoff next week together with Alain Juppé, a former prime minister.

    But Sarkozy’s own former premier, François Fillon, surged into first place, winning 44 percent support with 3.2 million of the votes counted.

    Juppé placed second with 28 percent support, followed by Sarkozy at 21 percent. (more…)

  • Russia Divides French Right’s Presidential Contenders

    Nicolas Sarkozy
    Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy meets with other European conservative leaders in Brussels, June 28 (EPP)

    A major foreign-policy issue that divides the top three contenders for the French right’s presidential nomination is Russia.

    BuzzFeed reports how Nicolas Sarkozy has transformed himself from a Vladimir Putin critic into a Vladimir Putin apologist since he lost the presidency in 2012.

    The former president has criticized President François Hollande’s handling of relations with Russia. He argues the EU should suspend sanctions against Russia. And most controversially, the former president has endorsed a referendum annexing Crimea to Russia, a view that puts him at odds with most UN states.

    François Fillon, Sarkozy’s former prime minister, has struck a conciliatory tone as well.

    He told the magazine Valeurs actuelles this week it was “fortunate” Russia had intervened in the Syrian conflict, otherwise the self-proclaimed Islamic State might have reached Damascus by now.

    In reality, Russia’s objective in Syria is to prop up the regime of Bashar al-Assad. It has not prioritized fighting the Islamic State, which mostly does battle with Western-backed forces in Iraq and Syria. (more…)

  • Former Premiers Knock Sarkozy Out of Presidential Contest

    Nicolas Sarkozy
    Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy meets with other European conservative leaders in Brussels, June 28 (EPP)
    • Former prime ministers François Fillon and Alain Juppé got the most support in the first round of the French center-right’s presidential primary on Sunday.
    • Of the two, Juppé is the more mainstream and pro-European candidate.
    • Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president, placed third and was eliminated from the contest.
    • The winner will be decided in a second voting round next week. (more…)

  • Fillon Unexpectedly Surges in French Presidential Primary

    Former French prime minister François Fillon appears to have upended the contest for his party’s presidential nomination only days away from the first voting round.

    Alain Juppé, another former prime minister, has been in the lead for months, polling around 35 to 40 percent support.

    Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president, has consistently polled in second place with around 30 percent support.

    Fillon didn’t get more than 10 percent until the start of this month but has now surged at Juppé’s expense and turned the primary into a three-way dead heat. (more…)

  • Macron Crowds Center in French Presidential Election

    Emmanuel Macron, France’s former economy minister, made official on Wednesday what political observers had suspected for months: he is running for president next year.

    Although the announcement was a long time coming, it could still have an unexpected impact on the contest, which so far has seemed certain to end in victory for the center-right candidate, Alain Juppé. (more…)

  • Hollande Torpedoes Candidacy, Socialists Seek Replacement

    French president François Hollande has exhausted what little goodwill he had left in his party by airing his views of other top officials.

    There was never any doubt that Hollande — the least popular president in French postwar history — would lose his reelection bid next year. But the Socialist Party was willing to follow him into defeat, owing to the absence of an uncontroversial successor and a political culture of deference.

    That has changed since the release of Un président ne devrait pas dire ça… (“A President Should Not Say That…”) earlier this month. (more…)