Atlantic Sentinel

Tag: Eastern Europe

  • Recommended Reading on the Russo-Ukrainian War

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has entered its fourth week. Russian forces have made limited headway, according to Western assessments. Russia has failed to take major Ukrainian cities and is instead shelling them from a distance, causing enormous destruction to property and unknown casualties.

    In Mariupol alone, which has been surrounded by Russians attacking from Crimea in the west and the Russian puppet republic of Donetsk in the north, officials report 2,500 dead.

    More than three million Ukrainians, out of 44 million, have left the country, according to the UN. Almost two million fled to Poland.

    Chernihiv, close to the border with Belarus, has been without electricity, heat and water for almost three weeks. Suburbs of Kiev were cut off from heat and water this week.

    Russian forces have progressed farthest in the agricultural Kherson Oblast in the south, reaching the east bank of the Dnieper River that cuts Ukraine in half.

    Here are the most insightful takes on the war I’ve read this week. Click here for my previous recommendations. (more…)

  • Recommended Reading on the Russo-Ukrainian War

    Vladimir Putin dramatically escalated his war in Ukraine a week ago, attacking the country’s major cities Kharkiv and Kiev and expanding Russian control of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast out of Crimea.

    So far the least successful Russian offensive has been in the Donbas. Possibly because the Ukrainian soldiers there are its most battle-hardened. Or maybe the Russian attack from the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk was only meant to pin those Ukrainian forces down.

    Russian troops have entered the northern suburbs of Kiev, streaming down from Belarus. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and his government remain in the city, once home to three million.

    The United Nations estimates that 660,000 Ukrainians have fled. More than half made their way to Poland. The Polish government says 50,000 Ukrainians are arriving every day. Hungary has taken 90,000 refugees. Hundreds thousands more are internally displaced.

    The European Union has banned Russian flights and state media, and in an historic first is providing €500 million worth of weapons to Ukraine. Large Western companies, including automaker Daimler and the oil and gas giant Shell, are pulling out of Russia.

    I haven’t been writing daily analyses of the war, because there are others who do that much better. Here are the sources I recommend. (more…)

  • Putin Invades Ukraine. How Far Will He Go?

    Russian tanks
    Russian T-72 tanks conduct military exercises in Chebarkul, April 24, 2017 (Russian Ministry of Defense)

    Russia has invaded Ukraine from three sides, attacking from Belarus in the north, its own territory and the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, and Russian-controlled Crimea in the south.

    Explosions were reported in many Ukrainian cities on Thursday, including Odessa on the Black Sea, suggesting missile attacks from Russian navy ships.

    Russian soldiers took control of an airbase as well as the sealed-off Chernobyl nuclear power plant north of Kiev. Tanks were spotted on the outskirts of Kharkiv, where residents are spending the night in underground metro stations. Fighting is ongoing in Mariupol across the line of control from the Donetsk People’s Republic Russia — but no other country — has recognized as independent.

    Ukraine reports 57 fatalities. The United Nations estimates that 100,000 Ukrainians have fled. (more…)

  • Finlandization Is Not an Option for Ukraine

    Motherland Monument Kiev Ukraine
    Motherland Monument in Kiev, Ukraine, December 20, 2018 (Unsplash/Rostislav Artov)

    Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War almost eight years ago, self-proclaimed realists in the West have peddled the same solution: “Finlandization”.

    Like Finland (and Austria) during the Cold War, Ukraine would be allowed closer economic integration with the rest of Europe but not NATO membership.

    I doubted this was a solution then, and everything that’s happened since should have put the notion to rest. Ukrainians don’t want to be Finlandized. Vladimir Putin wouldn’t be content with a neutral Ukraine. (more…)

  • Don’t Fall for Putin’s Propaganda About Ukraine

    Vladimir Putin
    Russian president Vladimir Putin listens during a meeting in Voronezh, August 5, 2014 (Kremlin)

    With Russia possibly on the verge of escalating the Donbas War, it’s worth repudiating Vladimir Putin’s justifications for invading Ukraine.

    This summer, Putin explained at length why he believes Russia and Ukraine are inseparable. His is a selective version of history that is illuminating insofar as it reveals Russian attitudes toward Belarusians, Ukrainians and other Slavic peoples in Eastern Europe; it’s not an excuse for denying Ukrainians their right to self-determination. (more…)

  • EU Must Send Strong Message to Belarus — And Russia

    Ursula von der Leyen Paolo Gentiloni Frans Timmermans
    European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen speaks with Paolo Gentiloni and Frans Timmermans, the commissioners for the economy and climate, in Brussels, May 12 (European Commission/Dati Bendo)

    The interception of a Ryanair plane by Belarus is a breach of international right.

    The crew was told by Belarusian officials there was a bomb threat, and they needed to divert to Minsk. It was a ploy to kidnap opposition blogger Roman Protasevich, who was traveling on the flight from Greece to Lithuania.

    The Western response has so far been one of shared indignation. This must be followed by concrete action against dictator Alexander Lukashenko — not in the least to send a strong message to his protector in Moscow. (more…)

  • Lukashenko Shouldn’t Expect Russia’s Help

    Vladimir Putin
    Russian president Vladimir Putin listens during a meeting in Voronezh, August 5, 2014 (Kremlin)

    Alexander Lukashenko could have gone down in history as the father of the Belarusian state. Now “Europe’s last dictator” is on his last leg. A rigged election has unleashed unprecedented protests.

    Desperate, Lukashenko has turned to his ally, Vladimir Putin, for help. Belarusian state media report that Russia has promised to provide military assistance if Lukashenko asks for it. This has sparked speculation that Russia might intervene in Belarus much as it did in Ukraine when its Russia-friendly president, Viktor Yanukovich, was ousted in 2014.

    That doesn’t seem likely. In fact, Russia may be better off with Lukashenko gone. (more…)

  • Belarus’ Lukashenko Under Pressure from All Sides

    Mike Pompeo Alexander Lukashenko
    American secretary of state Mike Pompeo meets with President Alexander Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials in Minsk, February 1 (State Department/Ron Przysucha)

    Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko has been in power for 26 years. He is expected to win what will likely be a rigged election on Sunday, but he may not get a landslide this time. The cracks in his regime are widening. (more…)

  • Why Armenia and Azerbaijan Are Shooting at Each Other

    Yerevan Armenia
    Yerevan, Armenia at night (Unsplash/Levon Vardanyan)

    In what have been some of the worst clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan in years, sixteen soldiers and one civilian were killed in the last two weeks. Armenia has threatened to bomb an Azerbaijani reservoir. Azerbaijan has threatened to destroy an Armenian nuclear plant. These may be empty threats, but they speak to the level of tension between the two countries.

    What exactly happened, why, and what is the likely outcome? (more…)

  • Coronavirus Puts Extra Stress on Russian Economy

    Saint Basil's Cathedral Moscow Russia
    Saint Basil’s Cathedral in Moscow, Russia at night (Unsplash/Ivan Lapyrin)

    The outbreak of coronavirus disease has put an additional stress on the Russian economy. It was already coping with a slump in oil prices.

    Russia has ample reserves to weather the storm, but average Russians could feel the pain. (more…)

  • In Minsk, Pompeo Is All Talk

    Mike Pompeo Alexander Lukashenko
    American secretary of state Mike Pompeo meets with President Alexander Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials in Minsk, February 1 (State Department/Ron Przysucha)

    Tensions between Belarus and Russia prompted American secretary of state Mike Pompeo to pay Alexander Lukashenko a visit this weekend. He told the Belarusian leader that the United States could fulfill all of his country’s oil needs if he wants to become “independent” from Russia.

    This shouldn’t be taken seriously. Besides the hypocrisy — how “independent” would Belarus be if it traded its dependence on Russia for a dependence on the United States? — it would be logistically and financially almost impossible for America to meet the complete oil needs of Russia’s closest ally.

    Pompeo’s remarks do suggest America is willing to help Belarus from being absorbed by Russia. But how much can it really do? (more…)

  • Who Is Russia’s New Prime Minister?

    Mikhail Mishustin was largely unknown both in- and outside Russia until two weeks ago. The head of the Federal Tax Service since 2010, he was unexpectedly promoted to prime minister, replacing Vladimir Putin’s longtime deputy, Dmitri Medvedev.

    Yet it was probably because, not in spite of, this political inexperience that Mishustin was chosen. (more…)

  • Why Putin Wants to Change Russia’s Constitution

    Barack Obama Vladimir Putin
    American president Barack Obama speaks with Australian foreign minister Bob Carr as Russian president Vladimir Putin opens a plenary session of the G20 in Saint Petersburg, September 6, 2013 (White House/Pete Souza)

    Russian president Vladimir Putin has called for a referendum to approve constitutional changes that would nominally hand more power to parliament.

    The changes, if approved, might improve Russia’s rating in the Freedom House index, but democracy is probably not on his mind.

    Only hours after his yearly address to the combined Federal Assembly, in which he made his proposals, Putin accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev and replaced him with the little-known head of the Federal Tax Service, Mikhail Mishustin.

    The moves have left both Russians and Russia experts wondering: what’s happening? And what’s next? (more…)

  • Russian-Ukrainian Gas Deal Is a Trilateral Victory

    Kiev Ukraine
    Skyline of Kiev, Ukraine, January 15, 2015 (Sergey Galyonkin)

    Russia and Ukraine have agreed to secure the flow of natural gas into Europe for the next five years. A deal between the two countries satisfies the economic needs of all three parties involved. Russia guarantees the export of its gas, Ukraine continues to benefit financially from transiting the gas, and the EU receives a steady supply of gas for the immediate future.

    Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly, will pipe 65 billion cubic metres of gas into Europe in 2020. The amount will fall to 40 billion over the next four years. The agreement mentions the possibility of extending the contract by another ten years upon maturity.

    Ukraine will receive up to $7 billion in transit fees, which would be around 5 percent of its national budget.

    An agreement has not (yet) been reached on direct gas supplies to Ukraine. For the time being, it only stands to benefit financially.

    Naftogaz, the Ukrainian gas company, will also receive $2.9 billion from Gazprom in overdue transit payments following an arbitration court ruling in Sweden. In return, Ukraine has agreed to drop $12.2 billion in additional legal claims. (more…)

  • Lukashenko Isn’t Interested in Belarus-Russia Union

    Earlier this month, the presidents of Belarus and Russia met in Sochi to discuss a merger of their two states. Nothing came of the meeting. Another is due on Friday. It is unlikely to produce results either.

    At this rate, the annual talks about closer integration are becoming a tradition without meaning.

    Alexander Lukashenko may not mind, but Vladimir Putin does. (more…)