Analysis and commentary about the independence crisis in Catalonia by Nick Ottens (based in Barcelona) and Ainslie Noble (an expert in Basque and Catalan identity issues).
The prospect of breaking away from Spain has divided the ruling coalition in Catalonia.
Late on Thursday, Business Secretary Santi Vila, a member of President Carles Puigdemont’s center-right European Democratic Party (PDeCAT), stepped down from the government.
Catalan newspaper La Vanguardia reports that Vila was dismayed by his colleagues’ determination to secede from Spain after telling companies for weeks they had nothing to worry about. (more…)
Catalonia’s far left could hold the key to independence after the next regional election.
Snap elections are likely in the next few months, whether called by the regional government to preempt the suspension of home rule or by the Spanish government once home rule is suspended
Polls suggest the ruling center-right European Democratic Party (PDeCAT) will trade places with its junior partner, the Republican Left.
But the balance between pro- and anti-independence parties could be unchanged — unless Catalonia in Common (Barcelona mayor Ada Colau’s party) and Podem (the Catalan branch of Podemos) change sides. (more…)
In my latest op-ed for the Netherlands’ NRC newspaper, I argue that Mariano Rajoy’s strategy of waiting for others to fail or rescue him isn’t working anymore. (more…)
Catalan president Carles Puigdemont has five options to respond to the threat of direct rule from Madrid:
The Spanish government has announced it will suspend Catalan home rule in order to “restore legality” in the region.
Mariano Rajoy and his cabinet were unsatisfied with Catalan president Carles Puigdemont’s response to their ultimatum. They had given him until Thursday to clarify that Catalonia had not declared its independence from Spain.
Puigdemont replied that the effect of the October 1 referendum — in which 43 percent of Catalans turned out and 90 percent voted for independence — is “suspended”, but he would not state unequivocally that he still considers the region part of Spain. (more…)
Catalan president Carles Puigdemont has stepped back from declaring independence, telling lawmakers in Barcelona that although the region has won the right to break away from Spain he is prepared to hold talks:
I propose suspending the effects of the declaration of independence to undertake talks in the coming weeks without which it is not possible to reach an agreed solution.
The climbdown avoids a worse constitutional crisis but is unlikely to satisfy the central government in Madrid. Mariano Rajoy, the prime minister, has refused to recognize last week’s referendum and conditioned dialogue on Puigdemont renouncing secession altogether. (more…)
A century ago, a British member of Parliament and geographer, Halford Mackinder, wrote one of the famous books of geopolitics, Democratic Ideals and Reality. The book discussed the tension between what nations want (“democratic ideals”) and what they often get (geographic “reality”).
That tension seems especially topical this week. (more…)
Catalonia and Kurdistan couldn’t seem farther away. One is nestled in the peace and prosperity of Western Europe, the other swims in the chaos of a dissolving Middle East.
Yet the two independence referendums of these would-be nation states are revealing. Both raise questions about the meaning of their regional orders and have provoked pushback from the status-quo world. (more…)
The law which made Sunday’s referendum possible calls for a declaration of independence from Spain within two days of a “yes” vote, but there are reasons to doubt the Catalans will go that far:
The unstoppable force of Catalan separatism is about to meet the unmovable object that is Mariano Rajoy.
The Spanish prime minister and conservative party leader has vowed to prevent an independence referendum in the northeastern region at all costs. The Catalans are determined to vote anyway.
Neither side will be able to claim victory on Monday.
Rajoy may succeed in blocking the vote, but his intransigence has already convinced moderate Catalans there isn’t a future for them in Spain. The separatists may manage to organize a referendum, but it will be so marred by illegality and irregularity that the outcome cannot possibly be considered a mandate to break away. (more…)
The British struggle to understand why, if they could manage two referendums in three years, Spain is so desperate to prevent the Catalans from voting on Sunday. (more…)
Catalonia is unlikely to declare its independence from Spain even if a majority votes to break away on Sunday.
The law that made the referendum possible — and which has been suspended by Spain’s Constitutional Court — calls for a declaration of independence within two days of a “yes” vote.
But Carles Puigdemont, the regional president and separatist leader, has told French television he wants to open up a transitional period of talks after the plebiscite. (more…)
