Atlantic Sentinel

Tag: Afghanistan

  • Future Afghan Troop Presence Divides Military, White House

    The Obama Administration is anxiously working to cement a status of forces agreement with the Afghan government before all foreign troops are expected to withdraw from the country in 2014. But before President Barack Obama can do so, he needs to conclude negotiations with his own Defense Department over how many American soldiers will be stationed in Afghanistan after NATO’s mandate officially expires.

    Arriving at a decision is becoming more difficult as the months drag on, with officials in the White House and the generals running the war once again at loggerheads over force requirements. (more…)

  • NATO Confident Afghan Army Ready to Take Over

    In Washington and around the world, the question that is lingering in everyone’s minds is how many American and NATO troops will stay in Afghanistan after the combat mission ends. December 31, 2014 is coming up on the calendar and with each passing day, the issue of hashing out a security agreement with the Afghan government grows a little more important.

    Regardless of the number of foreign troops that is left behind, it will be up to the Afghan National Security Forces to pick up where NATO left off, taking the lead in defending the country and keeping the pressure on the Taliban.

    The Afghan army and national police have both been a work in progress for the international coalition, requiring persistent and daily attention due to problems within the force that have not gone away: illiteracy among the rank and file; leadership deficiency in the officer corps; a defection rate that has forced Afghanistan to recruit thousands of additional soldiers and policemen year after year.

    NATO commanders are nevertheless convinced that Afghan national security forces have improved in the last three years, both in terms of size and the quality of it men. (more…)

  • Obama, Karzai Agree to Accelerate Troop Drawdown

    Presidents Barack Obama and Hamid Karzai met at the White House in Washington DC on Friday to discuss the future of American troop deployment in Afghanistan. Cementing a durable and legal foreign troop presence before NATO’s mission officially expires in 2014 has been a constant weight on the backs of American officials responsible for the Afghanistan portfolio. That weight has been partly lifted as the two leaders agreed to accelerate the drawdown of American forces.

    Before the meeting, White House officials said that no final decision about future of American troop deployment in Afghanistan would be made. This didn’t stop commentators from speculating about a number that could come out of the talks, however.

    If press reports are to be believed, the Obama Administration and the military are once again fighting it out among themselves over how best to wrap up the Afghan war — a divide that is reminiscent of the weeks proceeding the surge of 2010. The White House asked the Defense Department to pare down its original request for between 15- and 20,000 troops, viewing that option as both too costly and cumbersome. (more…)

  • Afghan Factions Meet in France as NATO Prepares Withdrawal

    Representatives of four Afghan groups met near Chantilly, France this week. While the meeting, organized by the Foundation for Strategic Research, is nowhere close to a negotiation, the gathering at least presented an opportunity for the various sides to talk.

    Members of the Afghan High Peace Council, the Northern Alliance, Hezbi Islami and the Taliban came to France for the talks.

    “If you want peace, it’s usually between people who don’t agree,” said France’s foreign minister Laurent Fabius ahead of the meeting, “and over there they don’t talk to each other. So there will be discussions but it won’t be negotiations.”

    2012 dawned with the hope that peace talks between the Taliban and the United States would progress. The former agreed to open a political office in Qatar and the Americans opened up to discussions about the release of prisoners held in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. Then, in March the talks stalled over the details of the Guantánamo prisoner transfer among other sticking points. The Taliban accused the American negotiators of being “shaky, erratic and vague.”

    As the year draws to a close the situation in Afghanistan remains bleak. 2012 was not only plagued by stalled negotiations but by an increase in “green on blue” violence — the killing of NATO soldiers by Afghan security forces — and vague, if any, improvements in security throughout the country. Although the Western alliance doesn’t plan to leave the country before 2014, withdrawals are already underway.

    The French government had no direct involvement in the meeting in Chantilly but officials were present. The meeting came at an auspicious time, a week after the French withdrew the last of their combat forces from Afghanistan and the British announced that they will be withdrawing nearly 4,000 soldiers next year, reducing Britain’s presence down to just over 5,000 troops by the end of 2013.

    The meeting in Chantilly was not expected to result in any breakthrough toward a peace agreement. As it took place behind closed doors, we might not even learn soon whether anything was accomplished.

    A Taliban spokesman said there would only be speeches, no political commitments and no negotiations. This, of course, could mean plenty of talking and no listening. On the other hand, gathering these disparate individuals together and allowing them a safe place to speak their positions is a step in the right direction.

  • Pentagon: Success in Afghanistan “Mixed Bag”

    With all 33,000 troops involved in the surge out of the country, American and NATO officials are slowly coming to the realization that the war in Afghanistan is finally drawing to a close. Eleven years, thousands of coalition deaths and billions of dollars later, much of the public in countries contributing troops to the Afghan mission are waiting for the day when their loved ones return home.

    The campaign in Afghanistan, originally concentrated on crushing Al Qaeda and overthrowing the Taliban, has long been an unpopular war as the operation broadened to include building up an Afghan army and safeguarding the Afghan government. Yet the public’s low morale has not sapped the morale of the men and women actually doing the fighting. To the commanders prosecuting the war effort and the nations involved, ensuring that Afghanistan is left with a relatively stable security environment is seen as a prerequisite for keeping Islamist militants at bay. (more…)

  • Pakistan Releases Taliban for Role in Afghan Peace Process

    During a recent visit to Pakistan, Afghanistan’s foreign minister Zalmai Rassoul secured the release of several Taliban prisoners in an effort to push the political reconciliation process forward in his country. The announcement came only a few weeks after Pakistan’s decision to release Taliban prisoners during the visit of an Afghan High Peace Council delegation to Islamabad.

    Both countries have also agreed to provide a safe passage to travel for talks and work jointly to get at least key leaders of the Taliban removed from the United Nations sanctions list.

    Pakistan, through these talks, is attempting to safeguard its strategic interests in Afghanistan and once again using the Afghan Taliban to facilitate it. As far as Pakistan is concerned, the Taliban, whatever its past experiences with them, still form the only political faction in Afghanistan that could possibly ensure its interests there.

    Pakistan, however, does not expect the Taliban to be capable of securing a military victory or controlling the country as it did before the 2001 invasion. It is unlikely that Pakistan itself would want to see complete Taliban domination in Afghanistan in the future either. A broad based government representing the various political factions, including the Taliban, would be more acceptable.

    Thus, by showing an eagerness to assist the Afghan peace talks, Pakistan is seeking to secure a place for the Taliban in a future representative political setup without a protracted armed struggle that could see the insurgents completely excluded from the process. (more…)

  • India’s Future Role in Afghanistan Severely Limited

    Afghan president Hamid Karzai reiterated the importance of India’s assistance for his country during his visit to New Delhi this month. He urged the country, and in particular its private sector, to further increase its investment in Afghanistan. The importance of Indian engagement in Afghanistan has been acknowledged by the Americans as well who are pushing India to step up its involvement in Afghanistan post 2014, especially in the security realm.

    There is no doubt that India has played a major role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan since 2001. Having contributed close to $2 billion in aid over the past decade, India is the fifth largest donor nation to Afghanistan.

    Although India has committed to increase its involvement in Afghanistan, there are some major limitations to its engagement that need to be highlighted. (more…)

  • Afghanistan’s Karzai Dismisses Helmand Governor

    Afghan president Hamid Karzai, in a declared attempt to fight corruption, has dismissed five provincial governors from their posts. Among those dismissed is Gulab Mangal of Helmand Province, a particular favorite of international forces. Mangal’s dismissal does not come as a surprise and makes a certain degree of sense in domestic political terms.

    Karzai has tried numerous times to push Mangal out of office but always pulled back at the objections of the American and British forces stationed in Helmand, the largest of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. That he has finally ousted Mangal indicates that Karzai is looking beyond the opinions of Western allies and 2014, when NATO is set to withdraw, with an eye for his own job security.

    In place of Mangal, under whose watch Helmand became the deadliest posting for NATO forces, Karzai is installing General Naeem Baloch, a little known member of the Afghan intelligence service and a man more closely allied with Karzai’s inner circle. (more…)

  • Haqqanis Classified as Foreign Terrorist Organization

    After extensive dialogue and discussion within the Obama Administration, the State Department has formally placed the Haqqani network on its list of foreign terrorist organizations.

    Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Friday that the Haqqani network “meets the statutory criteria of the Immigration and Nationality Act for designation as a foreign terrorist organization.” The decision was reportedly made just two days before Clinton submitted her opinion to the Congress, illustrating how long it took the administration to wrap up the process.

    On the face of it, designating the Haqqanis as a terrorist organization should have been an easy decision to make. The group is, according to American military officials in Afghanistan, the most sophisticated branch of the Afghan Taliban insurgency, responsible for the deaths of perhaps hundreds of servicemen and -women. Thousands of Afghan civilians have been killed in bombings that Haqqani fighters planned and carried out. Many of them, including the July 2008 suicide attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul, have targeted Afghan government installations.

    NATO central command headquarters, the United States embassy and Afghan ministries have all been targeted by Haqqani militants over the past three years, all of which have been embarrassing for the coalition as it attempts to secure the capital from insurgent violence.

    Nevertheless, officials worried that a formal designation of the group would rankle the feathers of the Pakistani government which has maintained contacts with the Haqqanis for decades. Pakistan is now the closest it has ever been to the “state sponsor of terrorism” category.

    The United States are loath to make the connection but the connection is there. The Obama Administration will now have to justify why Pakistan is not on the list of state sponsors of terrorism. Given the damning remarks that former American military officials have made on the Pakistan-Haqqani link, it will have to make that case quickly and effectively.

    Will the label hurt the Haqqani group in any substantial way? The answer is debatable, for most of the group’s senior leaders are already designated as individual terrorists. The likelihood that the Haqqani business empire will now be targeted in the Persian Gulf, where most of the organization’s profits are made, has increased. Those who were previously working with the Haqqanis on financial matters may think twice about engaging in similar business transactions. But the ruling may not do much to stop the many businesses that Haqqani leaders conduct illegally, including extortion, illegal tax collection, kidnapping and smuggling.

    Time will tell on whether the terrorist organization label will make it more difficult for the group to mount attacks in Afghanistan and shelter other militants in Pakistan. But if the past record is any indication, the Haqqanis will still remain a powerful force inside of Pakistan’s tribal regions, secluded from American and NATO ground forces.

  • Obama, Romney Don’t Mention the War

    Early last week, the Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan stepped on to the stage in the battleground state of New Hampshire to address supporters and persuade those undecided to back him in November. The scenery of the event was as typical as it gets in the heart of a heated presidential race: supporters clapped their hands and cheered while Romney criticized the incumbent, Barack Obama, for his poor economic record and lackluster leadership skills. But the entire campaign event seemed to change in an instant when an older men, presumably a veteran, asked a pointed and direct question about an issue neither candidate has talked about a lot during the campaign.

    The voter wasn’t concerned about job growth nor Romney’s plans to reform health care for American seniors. Rather, it was about the bad news that has been coming out of Afghanistan during the past two months. Nearly a dozen American soldiers have recently been killed by their Afghan counterparts and countless more in a combination of roadside attacks with improved explosive devices, helicopter malfunctions and suicide bombings.

    I want to know what you guys are going to do about Afghanistan. We’ve got those characters over there shooting our guys and our guys are coming home in body bags. So when you guys take over in Washington, what are you going to do about this damn mess in Afghanistan?

    It is a question that both Romney and Ryan were perhaps surprised to get. In a way, their surprise was understandable. Neither the president nor Mitt Romney has discussed the Afghan war, now the longest in American history, in any concrete and detailed way since the beginning of the election season. (more…)

  • A Clarion Call for Change in Afghanistan

    As the planned exit of American and NATO troops in 2014 nears, Afghanistan has a grim future ahead.

    Over a decade ago, the United States set out to create a stable Afghan government alongside a competent armed force that could prevent extremist groups from using Afghan land as a base for their operations. With Hamid Karzai set to vacate the presidency in 2014 and the Taliban gaining momentum in provinces where Afghan security forces are assuming more responsibility, few will look over the situation and sense triumph on part of the United States and their Western allies. (more…)

  • Foreign Investment in Afghanistan Faces Obstacles

    The recently concluded summits on Afghanistan held in New Delhi and Tokyo aimed at attracting foreign investments to Afghanistan in the hope that economic growth will simultaneously instill a sense of security and political stability. Although the Afghan government has managed to achieve its target amount — the participating countries pledged $16 billion for the next four years — any investment in the country is likely to face obstacles.

    Security is the most obvious impediment for any development task undertaken in Afghanistan. (more…)

  • Clinton’s Apology Reopens NATO Supply Route

    Pakistan has agreed to reopen NATO supply routes into Afghanistan after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton apologized for the deaths of Pakistani soldiers during an airstrike last November.

    The United States spent an additional $100 million per month to transport supplies to the NATO mission in Afghanistan through Central Asia while the route was shut. The Salala raid, as Pakistan refers to the incident which touched off the closure, topped off a bad year for American-Pakistani relations.

    “We are sorry for the losses suffered by the Pakistani military,” Clinton said in a statement that was issued by her State Department. (more…)

  • NATO Supply Route Through Pakistan Remains Closed

    Despite rumors ahead of last month’s NATO summit in Chicago that an agreement between Pakistan and the United States to reopen the supply route into Afghanistan was imminent, both sides are still very far apart on a deal.

    On Monday, the American negotiating team withdrew from Pakistan. Officials insist that the talks have not collapsed but have come to the point where politics takes over. The team, made up of technical specialists, has been in Pakistan for 45 days.

    A Pentagon spokesman, Commander William H. Speaks, said that the technical consultations have largely been completed, and the United States remain ready to send officials back to Islamabad when the Pakistanis are ready to conclude an agreement. The State Department’s Victoria Nuland made similar comments, that the United States have decided to “take a break” but are prepared to send the team of negotiators back to Pakistan.

    A number of issues have stalled the reopening of NATO supply routes. Technical aspects, such as price, military aid and infrastructure improvements have been sticking points but it is the issue of an apology has stalled final agreement. (more…)

  • Turkmenistan Finally Puts the “T” in TAPI

    On Wednesday Turkmenistan finally signed agreements with India and Pakistan’s state energy companies to clear the way for the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline.

    TAPI was conceptualized in the 1990s and has been beset with a multitude of problems since. Wednesday’s announcement removes a major obstacle for the TAPI project but many more remain.

    The pipeline would begin in Turkmenistan’s vast gasfields. Initial TAPI plans called for the source to be the Dauletabad field in southern Turkmenistan. More recent plans indicate that a portion of TAPI would come from the yet to be developed South Yolotan field near the Afghan border. (more…)