The Many Scenarios of a Republican Civil War

Members of the Texas delegation listen to a speech at the Republican National Convention in Saint Paul, Minnesota, September 2, 2008
Members of the Texas delegation listen to a speech at the Republican National Convention in Saint Paul, Minnesota, September 2, 2008 (PBS/Tom LeGro)

In August 2016, I was penning an article titled “The Coming Republican Civil War”. The premise was simple: after a self-inflicted Trumpian defeat in November, the party of Lincoln would tear itself asunder assigning blame and shedding factions.

But Hillary lost. For a few brief months, the Grand Old Party looked triumphant.

Not so much anymore.

The long-term trajectory of the Republican Party isn’t great; factional infighting has already sunk several attempts to roll back the Affordable Care Act and by the end of the month we’ll know just how deep the divides go should tax reform and the Graham-Cassidy health-care bill fail. Read more

The Octopus in Political Cartoons

Octopuses are a popular trope in political art. They came in vogue in the 1870s, when Frederick W. Rose depicted Russia as a giant octopus lording over Eastern Europe. The sea monster was quickly given to Germany when it posed a bigger threat to peace in Europe. During the early Cold War, it was Russia’s turn again. The octopus was the perfect metaphor for spreading communism.

Here is a selection of the best and worst tentacled sea creatures. Read more

The United Republics: A Peace Plan for America

Clare Trainor's proposal for high-speed rail connections between seven American megaregions
Clare Trainor’s proposal for high-speed rail connections between seven American megaregions

The 2016 election was a turning point in American history. Cultural, political and regional differences have become so vast that the American political system is becoming unsustainable. There are two fundamentally different visions of what this country should be and the current federal system does not allow these differences to be reconciled.

For these reasons, I am proposing a new political system that would transform the United States of America into the United Republics of America.

This new government would still allow nationwide coordination of domestic and foreign policy, but it would devolve power to newly created republics. Read more

Niemals Oder-Neisse: The Border Germany Refused to Accept for 45 Years

1980 Christian Democratic Union poster about "the open German question"
1980 Christian Democratic Union poster about “the open German question” (ACDP)

After World War II, the Allied powers ceded the German lands east of the Order and Lusatian Neisse rivers to Poland — creating a border dispute that would last all through the Cold War. Read more

Lines on a Map: Five Examples Worse Than Sykes-Picot

The centennial of the Sykes-Picot Agreement has flooded the better-informed parts of the Internet with everything from the depressingly familiar (blaming the treaty for all the Middle East’s problems) to the refreshingly critical. There seems to be more and more of the latter, which is heartening.

Sykes-Picot was after all not the only plan to partition the Ottoman Empire after World War I, as Middle East expert Adam Garfinkle writes in The American Interest. And blaming it, or any Western design, for imposing “artificial borders” on the region is a dangerous proposition, as the Atlantic Sentinel has argued. Taken to its logical conclusion, the idea that only borders that perfectly encompass certain ethnic groups are legitimate invites more conflict, not less.

The Middle East is not the only part of the world that can attest to that. Here are five examples where drawing lines on the map caused even bigger problems. Read more

Territorial Changes Shaped Polish Society

1945 map of a potential post-World War II partition of Poland
1945 map of a potential post-World War II partition of Poland (Time/Robert M. Chapin Jr.)

Poland’s historical changeability on the map of Europe has had a profound impact on its political and social composition. A century after it regained its independence, differences still exists between those parts of Poland that were annexed by Germans and those that were once part of Austria and Russia.

In the last few parliamentary and presidential elections, the political map of Poland could be drawn almost perfectly along the former borders of its occupiers. The liberal Civic Platform party won pluralities in almost all counties that were part of the German Empire until 1914. The conservative Law and Justice, by contrast, won most counties in the east. Read more

Geography Renders Poland Vulnerable to Foreign Plots

Topographical map of Poland and Europe
Topographical map of Poland and Europe (Wikimedia Commons)

Situated on the North European Plain between Germany and Russia, Poland has often played a pivotal role in European history. It dominated Central Europe in the seventeenth century, stretching from the Baltic Sea in the north to near the Black Sea in the south as part of a commonwealth with Lithuania. Two centuries later, it had disappeared off the map, partitioned between Austria, Prussia and Russia.

Like Germany in the west and Russia to the east, Poland largely lacks clear natural borders. The Baltic Sea coast and central plain are flat and have historically served as an invasion route, from Napoleon’s attempted conquest of Russia in 1812 and Adolf Hitler’s more successful attempt in 1941-42 to the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany the other way around three years later.

The country’s two main rivers, the Oder and Vistula, facilitate east-west movement. Most large cities, including Gdańsk, Poznań, Wrocław and Warsaw — the capital — straddle it.

Poland’s only natural defenses are in the south. The Carpathian and Sudeten ranges offer some barrier but are not forbidding enough to altogether deter an invading force, such as when the Austrians moved across the mountains in 1809 in a futile attempt to take Warsaw from what was then a French puppet state. Nor are they so rugged as to frustrate economic development. Major cultural and industrial centers like Katowice and Kraków can be found in the Carpathians.

Given its geographical position in Europe, Poland’s fate is inextricably tied up with the intentions of its neighbors. When they are weak, such as Germany and Russia were in the seventeenth century, Poland can defend its independence and prosper. When its rivals are not only powerful but act together, Poland is doomed.

Most infamously, between 1772 and 1795, the Austrian, Prussian and Russian Empires conspired to progressively remove Poland from the map. (Napoleon briefly resurrected it as the Duchy of Warsaw from 1807 to 1815.) Poland was restored after World War I but divided up between Germany and Russia again in 1939. It emerged from the Second World War that its invasion triggered smaller and further to the west. At the 1945 Yalta Conference, Western leaders acceded in demands from Soviet leader Joseph Stalin that Poland’s Eastern Borderlands be incorporated into Russian-controlled Belarus, Lithuania and Ukraine. Some one million ethnic Poles were moved west by the Soviet authorities and forced to make a new life for themselves in lands that were once German. Millions of Germans, in turn, were expelled from areas like East Prussia, Farther Pomerania and Silesia. Many resettled in the newly-formed Federal Republic of Germany.

1990 Central Intelligence Agency map of the 1937 and present-day borders of Poland and Lithuania
1990 Central Intelligence Agency map of the 1937 and present-day borders of Poland and Lithuania (Library of Congress)

Fearful of another invasion from the west, Russia reneged on its promise to respect Polish independence and subjugated it as a communist-led client state. Nationalist sentiment nevertheless remained strong and Poland went on to lead the Eastern Bloc in revolt against Russian overlordship. Starting in 1980, the country’s Solidarity trade union, led by later president Lech Wałęsa, pressured the Soviet-backed leadership for political freedoms, culminating in semi-free elections in 1989 that paved the way for a transition away from one-party rule across Central and Eastern Europe.

Poland has since oriented itself westward, joining the American-led NATO alliance in 1999 and entering the European Union in 2004. This shift has largely solved Poland’s geopolitical problem. Germany is no longer a territorial threat. Like the United States, it should now come to Poland’s defense in the event of another threat from the east.

But Poland has also relied on faraway powers before who failed to protect it. As Russia flexes its military muscle in Eastern Europe, Poland — unlike some of its Western allies — will not let its guard down. The country knows it cannot take its freedom for granted.