Atlantic Sentinel

Author: Daniel DePetris

  • Iranian Leader Expected to Urge Dialogue in United Nations Address

    While thousands of international diplomats are attending this week’s festivities at the annual United Nations General Assembly, American officials are squaring most of their attention on Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani.

    Since his surprising victory in Iran’s presidential election this summer, the former nuclear negotiator and cleric has generated his fair share of excitement in world capitals, talking of moderation, coming together in pursuit of shared goals and expressing a willingness to become more transparent about his country’s nuclear enrichment efforts.

    Compared to his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Rouhani comes across as a wise sage who understands the nuances and sensitivities of international politics. The president himself criticized Ahmadinejad’s administration for speaking in bold, black and white terms and conducting a foreign policy that, he said, resulted in nothing but global sanctions preventing Iran from exporting its oil.

    With an economy in tatters, Rouhani recognizes that he needs to change how Iran does business if there is any hope for those sanctions to be relaxed. (more…)

  • Intense Diplomacy Required to Disarm Assad’s Chemical Arsenal

    When asked by a CBS reporter during a press conference if there was anything Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad could do to avert a military strike, Secretary of State John Kerry casually suggested that his regime could hand over all of its chemical weapons to international monitors.

    “Sure,” Kerry said. “He could turn over every single bit of his chemical weapons to the international community in the next week. Turn it over, all of it, without delay and allow a full and total accounting for that.” To demonstrate just how unrealistic he deemed the possibility, Kerry quickly added that Assad was unlikely to even consider the idea. “He isn’t about to do it and it can’t be done, obviously.”

    Forty-eight hours later, Kerry’s offhand remark has turned into a major diplomatic initiative led by the Russians to postpone or cancel outright an American airstrike on Assad’s military bases. (more…)

  • Obama’s Time Running Out for Syria Strike Authorization

    If President Barack Obama has any chance of winning congressional approval for using limited military force in Syria, his national-security team will need to make a better case for action in the next several days. That seems to be the collective judgment of millions of Americans and dozens of members of Congress, most of whom are still on the fence as to whether they should allow the resolution to pass.

    constitutionally, the president has the power to act militarily against the regime of his Syrian counterpart Bashar Assad without Congress’ approval. Yet in a sign that Obama does not want to plunge his nation into yet another Middle Eastern war without some support at home, he decided to bring the matter up to the legislature last weekend. However, Congress has often disappointed his administration by underachieving or failing to come together to get legislation through. (more…)

  • Obama to Face Skeptical Congress Before Launching Syria Strikes

    More than a week after hundreds of Syrian civilians were allegedly gassed by their own government in a suburb of the capital Damascus, it looked as if the United States were finally about to respond to the crisis in a determined and forceful manner. Five warships were deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean, stocked with dozens of cruise missiles in the event President Barack Obama ordered retaliatory strikes. Secretary of State John Kerry spoke to the American public and the world twice in a week, arguing for a resolute response to a savage attack that he called a “crime against conscience.”

    An American attack against Syrian regime targets seemed a foregone conclusion. So much so that Syrian commanders ordered their troops to evacuate their bases and head into the dense, civilian areas of Damascus.

    But almost as soon as the Obama Administration declassified its assessment of the Syrian regime’s responsibility for the chemical weapons attack, President Obama held a news conference to tell the nation he would bring the manner before the United States Congress. “While I believe I have the authority to carry out this military action without specific congressional authorization,” the president said, “I know that the country will be stronger if we take this course and our actions will be even more effective.” (more…)

  • America Condemns Syrian Gas Attack, Seen Preparing Strikes

    After nearly a week of internal deliberations and international debate over what appeared to be a chemical weapons attack in Syria, Secretary of State John Kerry made it clear on Monday where America stands — and where it believes the blame rests.

    In a short statement at the State Department in front of reporters, Kerry delivered by far the most forceful message that has come out of the Obama Administration since the Syrian regime allegedly gassed hundreds of civilians in a suburb of the capital Damascus.

    “Let me be clear,” he Kerry. “The indiscriminate slaughter of civilians, the killing of women and children and innocent bystanders, by chemical weapons is a moral obscenity. There is a reason that President Obama has made clear to the Assad regime that this international norm cannot be violated without consequences.” (more…)

  • Despite Calls to Cut Aid, American Influence in Egypt Limited

    Last month, Kentucky’s libertarian senator, Rand Paul, introduced a motion to suspend American aid to Egypt, proposing to divert the money to domestic infrastructure programs. A longtime opponent of foreign aid in general, Paul, a Republican, pushed the resolution at a time of immense political turmoil in the Arab country. Just three weeks earlier, the Egyptian army had unseated Islamist president Mohamed Morsi to the relief of millions of Egyptians who opposed his Muslim Brotherhood’s rule.

    The amendment failed. Just twelve other senators supported it. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Bob Corker of Tennessee, John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, all of whom are influential members in the Senate when it comes to foreign policy and national-security issues, were among those voting it down.

    However, after a particularly bloody week in which hundreds of Morsi’s supporters were killed by Egyptian security forces while removing demonstrations from the streets of Cairo, those four senators apparently had a change of heart.

    In contrast to their positions two weeks ago, they now believe suspending $1.5 billion in annual American assistance to the Egyptian government is an appropriate response to the bloodshed. (more…)

  • Egypt Army’s Crackdown Puts Pressure on Obama to Sever Ties

    American president Barack Obama’s Egypt policy is severely tested as the Arab nation’s military forcefully disbands tens of thousands of Muslim Brotherhood supporters who were protesting last month’s removal of President Mohamed Morsi from office.

    As is usual during a time of confrontation, the exact death toll is unknown. The Egyptian Health Ministry originally counted 278 people dead as a result of the police dispersal of the mass demonstrations but reports now speculate up to five hundred casualties, most them civilians but also policemen.

    What is certain is that the military’s decision to move into the protest camps in full force — tear gas, live ammunition, bulldozers and helicopters were used — will make reconciliation between Egypt’s Islamist and secular factions all the more difficult. (more…)

  • Egypt’s Interim Leaders, Muslim Brotherhood Refuse to Budge

    It has been five weeks since the Egyptian army, encouraged by millions of protesters demanding an end to Muslim Brotherhood rule, overthrew President Mohamed Morsi and detained him on charges of harming Egypt’s national security. Morsi, holed up somewhere in a prison on the outskirts of Cairo, has not been seen in public or heard from since he was taken into custody in early July, to the derision of his family and his many followers.

    Despite the former president being held by the authorities without access to the outside world, tens of thousands of his supporters remain on the streets in northeast Cairo, chanting for his reinstatement and denouncing what they consider a coup by Egypt’s military leaders. (more…)

  • Iranians, West Hope New President Will Break with Past

    After being endorsed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a day earlier, Hassan Rouhani was formally inaugurated by Iran’s Majlis on Sunday as the country’s new president. With Khamenei watching on stage, the reigns of the presidency were officially handed over by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a symbolic gesture.

    Even before surprising international observers with a resounding win over his reactionary opponents in the June presidential election, Rouhani was a recognizable and highly respected individual in the Islamic republic’s political system. A man with considerable religious credentials, Rouhani managed his country’s National Security Council for sixteen years during the presidencies of Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami. His stewardship of the council occurred at a time when Tehran was slowly trying to improve its public image after a long and bloody war with Iraq and later during a period when American soldiers were miles from Iran’s eastern and western borders. (more…)

  • American Policy in Tatters as Egypt’s Morsi is Charged

    If the United States needed a reason to suspend economic and military assistance to the Egyptian military after Mohamed Morsi’s overthrow, the past week has given officials in Washington DC a menu to choose from.

    The major question in the American capital has been what to call the Egyptian army’s intervention early this month when it detained Morsi, the elected president, and installed a transitional government headed by the country’s former chief justice. Senators like Republican John McCain and Democrat Carl Levin insist it was a coup. But under American law, the military would then have to suspend assistance to Egypt’s armed forces for interfering in the political process and overrunning an elected leader.

    Concerned that a slowdown or sudden suspension of military aid would endanger national security at a critical time in Egypt’s evolution, the Obama Administration decided to ignore those in Congress who were pushing for such a cut in aid. One of the reasons is that millions of Egyptians who took to the streets to demand Morsi’s resignation after a year of increasingly authoritarian and divisive rule from his Muslim Brotherhood. The Egyptian army, according to this view, only reacted to the will of the people for a fresh start and a new round of elections.

    Yet it only took a few hours after that decision was made to thrust Egypt back into the foreign policy spotlight. On Friday, millions heeded the call of the nation’s chief general, Abdul Fatah Sisi, to publicly and vocally demonstrate their support for the army’s actions — and by extension, oppose the millions of Morsi demonstrators who want him to be reinstated. (more…)

  • Kerry Persuades Israel, Palestinians to Enter Peace Talks

    America’s secretary of state John Kerry concluded his meetings with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas on Friday with a last-minute commitment to return to peace talks with the Israelis. The agreement, which came after four days of intense shuttle diplomacy by Kerry, could lead to proper negotiations in Washington DC next week, the first in five years.

    Kerry, who has made the Israeli-Palestinian conflict a defining issue during his tenure, was upbeat with reporters after his midnight meeting with Abbas. “I’m pleased to announce that we have reached an agreement,” he said. “This is a significant, and welcome, step forward.”

    Kerry’s work got an added boost during his travels to the region on Wednesday when the foreign ministers of the Arab League expressed full support for his efforts. The body earlier toned down its own peace initiative to Israel, promising a regional agreement among the Arabs that would grant the Jewish state full recognition in exchange for territorial concessions to the Palestinians in East Jerusalem, Gaza and the West Bank. (more…)

  • Violent Protests Cloud Egyptian Army’s Takeover

    The political crisis in Egypt resulting from last week’s ouster of President Mohamed Morsi took a violent turn on Monday when Muslim Brotherhood supporters that had amassed near the Republican Guard’s headquarters in Cairo, where Morsi is believed to be held, were sprayed with live ammunition from the Egyptian army. Fifty demonstrators were estimated to have been killed. Hundreds more were wounded.

    Morsi’s party denounced the incident as a “massacre” and urged its followers to remain in the streets to protest his removal from office. (more…)

  • Egypt Crisis Draws America’s Attention to Middle East Once Again

    With over 23 Egyptians reported dead in clashes between supporters and opponents of President Mohamed Morsi and Egypt’s powerful military ready to impose a solution to the crisis later on Wednesday, American foreign policy is once again in the throes of a dilemma.

    President Barack Obama, who has taken a pragmatic approach to the “Arab Spring” uprisings in the last two years, is faced with another political crisis in the Arab world that could escalate into further violence among Egypt’s many factions.

    When news broke that the Egyptian army would impose its own solution if Morsi was unable to appease the demands of his opponents, American officials quickly rushed to the phones to confer with their Egyptian counterparts. The White House released a short readout of a conversation between Presidents Obama and Morsi that took place late on Monday. While it was short on details, the message clearly exhibited American alarm that further conflict could result without a compromise that Morsi, his Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s secular parties and millions of protesters could live with.

    Egypt has been through mass protests before. Millions of Egyptians poured into the streets of Cairo and Alexandria in January and February 2011, culminating in the resignation of Hosni Mubarak, the man who had ruled Egypt with an iron fist for thirty years. Those demonstrations, however, were not entirely peaceful. At least eight hundred protesters were killed. Thousands more were imprisoned by a police apparatus that has largely stayed intact under Morsi’s administration.

    A similar scenario is unfolding today but it is occurring in an Egyptian body politic that is far more polarized than it was two years ago, when Mubarak was the target for Christians, moderate Islamists, Salafists and seculars alike. (more…)

  • Europe, United States Cautiously Optimistic About Rouhani’s Win

    The resounding win by Hassan Rouhani, the only relative moderate in this year’s Iranian presidential race, was as dramatic to world powers as it was encouraging to millions of Iranians who waited for the results last Saturday.

    Rouhani, who is a cleric by training and was his country’s chief nuclear negotiator between 2003 and 2005, was not expected to win the election. Nor was he seen as a great challenger to Iran’s conservatives, an establishment that forms the nucleus of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s support base.

    Despite the doubts and his status as a wildcard during the campaign, Rouhani’s victory made clear that many Iranians had become disillusioned with the conservatism of his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, one that has had detrimental effects on the Iranian economy and its foreign relations.

    Rouhani also managed to pull of a feat that no presidential candidate in Iran has for a long time: win the vote without a runoff election. (more…)

  • Obama to Consider Deeper Involvement in Syria’s Civil War

    Steady military advances by loyalist forces against rebel units across Syria have once again forced the Obama Administration and its European allies to consider arming an insurgency that is desperate for reinforcements.

    Senior American national-security officials are scheduled to meet with the president at the White House in Washington DC on Wednesday to discuss the Syrian crisis, a meeting advocates for intervention hope will result in a mass supply of arms and ammunition to those seeking to topple Bashar Assad’s government.

    Members of the administration will reportedly consider a range of options to bolster the rebel forces, from providing more sophisticated weaponry to moderate opposition factions to launching a discriminate campaign of airstrikes that would target Syria’s fleet of fighter jets and helicopters. A no-fly zone over territory that is controlled by the opposition is still being viewed as a distant option, given the amount of risk that American pilots would face from Syria’s relatively modern, Russian air defenses. (more…)