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American Election Blog

Analysis and opinion from both sides of the Atlantic.

Essential reading

Polls

  • Presidential polls have consistency put Biden ahead with an average of 52 to 43 percent support for Trump.
  • Biden needs to win by at least 3 points nationally to have a better than fifty-fifty chance of prevailing in the Electoral College.
  • Democrats are expected to defend their majority in the House of Representatives and are favored to win a majority in the Senate.

Pivotal states

The outcome of the presidential election will probably be decided in nine “swing states”, where Biden and Trump are neck and neck in the polls. (Why did we pick these nine?)

FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics have the latest figures.

State (Electors) 2016 margin Polls
Arizona (11) R+3.5 D+2.8
Florida (29) R+1.2 B+1.3
Georgia (16) R+5.1 D+1.1
Iowa (6) R+9.4 D+1.6
North Carolina (15) R+3.7 D+1.9
Ohio (18) R+8.1 R+1.9
Pennsylvania (20) R+0.7 D+5.1
Texas (38) R+9 R+1.7
Wisconsin (10) R+0.8 D+9.1
Biden (D) 261 97 56 124 Trump (R)

270 electoral votes needed to win.

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