British Conservatives Face Three Structural Challenges

British prime minister Theresa May attends an EU summit in Tallinn, Estonia, September 28
British prime minister Theresa May attends an EU summit in Tallinn, Estonia, September 28 (EU2017EE/Annika Haas)

The United Kingdom’s Conservative Party has arguably been one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. It dominated British politics from 1886 to 1906, from 1918 to 1945, from 1951 to 1964 and from 1979 to 1997. It is now in government since 2010.

Yet, as the party assembles in Manchester this week for its annual conference, there is a sense of decline. Conservative membership is down. Brexit has cost them the youth vote. And the political landscape has shifted in Labour’s favor. Read more

Election Divides Kingdom as Parties Consolidate Their Base

The British flag flies over the Houses of Parliament in London, England
The British flag flies over the Houses of Parliament in London, England (Unsplash/Matt Milton)

There is still a lot to digest from last week’s British election. The promised Conservative landslide never materialized. Labour gained seats, including in affluent constituencies like Kensington that it won for the first time, but it also fell short of a majority. Theresa May remains in power but has been weakened. She must rely on the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland for a majority, which threatens to upset the delicate balance of power in Ulster.

We can nevertheless say two things with certainty:

  1. The trends spotted in last year’s Brexit vote are accelerating.
  2. The new poles in British politics are consolidating and that leaves the center wide open. Read more

British See French Election Through Prism of Own Politics

The United Kingdom on a globe
The United Kingdom on a globe (Ali Wade)

While we in United Kingdom do not have a vote in today’s presidential runoff, the election in France has dominated conversation and news. Which is somewhat remarkable, given the state of Britain’s own politics. Read more

Local Elections Test British Parties’ Prospects for June

British prime minister Theresa May and Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon meet in Edinburgh, July 15, 2016
British prime minister Theresa May and Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon meet in Edinburgh, July 15, 2016 (Scottish Government)

Today’s local elections in the United Kingdom should be a good indicator of the national mood going into the general election in June.

The areas holding elections on Thursday are the “shire counties” of England and all counties of Scotland and Wales.

These areas are mostly rural or semi-rural and have a tendency to be either Conservative bastions, particularly in England, or have no single party in control. Read more

Four Reasons to Doubt Conservatives Will Win In Landslide

British prime minister Theresa May is applauded walking into 10 Downing Street in London, England, July 13, 2016
British prime minister Theresa May is applauded walking into 10 Downing Street in London, England, July 13, 2016 (The Prime Minister’s Office/Tom Evans)

This week marked the last prime minister’s questions before the British election in June and seems a good place to examine the reasons Theresa May might be less secure that she seems.

While her Conservative Party is 21 points ahead of Labour in the polls — its biggest lead in almost a decade — there are four reasons to doubt it will stay there. Read more

By-Elections Vindicate May, Give Little Comfort to Corbyn

British Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn attends a conference of European socialist parties in Paris, France, July 8, 2016
British Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn attends a conference of European socialist parties in Paris, France, July 8, 2016 (PES)

In an ordinary election cycle, last week’s by-elections in Stoke-on-Trent and Copeland might not have generated headlines. Labour has held solid majorities in both constituencies for years.

But there hasn’t been an ordinary election cycle since Britain voted to leave the European Union this summer. Read more

British Liberal Democrat Revival Starts to Look More Likely

British Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron answers questions from reporters in Brussels, February 18, 2016
British Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron answers questions from reporters in Brussels, February 18, 2016 (ALDE)

After they formed a coalition government with the Conservatives in 2010, Britain’s Liberal Democrats only lost elections — local, mayoral and national.

The low point came in May 2015, when the party lost 49 of its 57 seats in the House of Commons. Big names, like Danny Alexander and Vince Cable, were voted out. Liberal strongholds across South West England simply vanished.

Liberals have talked up a “LibDem revival” since that dismal election result and commentators have dismissed it as sheer optimism.

But could there be something to it after all? Read more