Manuel Valls, the French prime minister, is attempting to unify his party, but the very reforms that make him a divisive figure on the left are still likely to stop him from seeking the Socialists’ presidential nomination.
There is little doubt that Valls would be a stronger contender in 2017 than the incumbent, François Hollande. Polls show he would decisively beat the Front national‘s Marine Le Pen in a theoretical runoff and would come close to defeating Nicolas Sarkozy, the conservative former president.
Hollande, by contrast, would lose against both, if he even managed to qualify for the second voting round.
Valls’ problem is his own party. Many on the left see his program of lower business taxes, competition in intercity transport, weaker labor protections and allowing stores to open on more Sundays as a betrayal of the French social compact.
Politico reports that Valls is trying to get back into favor with the Socialists, telling a party convention on Sunday that liberalization is not an end in itself but rather a means to advance the “values” of the left.
Once the torchbearer of reform, the prime minister seemed eager to seek compromise between the centrist and left wings of his party. Hence his attempt to describe his past policy as fully in line with the traditional Socialist mantra.
Left-wing voters are ahead of the party. A poll published in Sunday’s Journal du Dimanche showed 35 percent would rather Valls ran in 2017 against 22 percent who want to keep Hollande.
Yet Valls’ reform effort works against him in two ways, according to Politico.
If it pays off, and France finally sees unemployment fall in the fourth year of Hollande’s presidency, the incumbent would be the beneficiary and more likely to stand for a second term.
If, on the other hand, Valls wants to have a chance at preempting another Hollande run, he may want to slow down his program and tack to the left so the economy doesn’t dramatically improve and the party stays united. But that also risks “diluting the identity he has sought to build as a bold reformist,” potentially weakening his appeal to moderates.
In what might be a telling sign, Valls’ government is delaying long-overdue labor reforms by commissioning a study into the matter.
The Atlantic Sentinel has argued that the Socialists are unlikely to jettison Hollande before the next election, if only because most of them aren’t ready yet to accept the economic reality that Valls represents.
The price will likely be opposition, where the Socialists spent twenty years before Hollande unseated Sarkozy in 2012.