No Good Way Out China-Japan Island Dispute

There’s no good way to solve the security dilemma around the Diaoyu Islands dispute.

View of the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, September 15, 2012
View of the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, September 15, 2012 (Wikicommons/BehBeh)

Since the Diaoyu or Senkaku Islands dispute between China and Japan reemerged last year, there’s been a tendency to identify the United States as the main beneficiary of it. The thinking is as follows: the dispute strengthens the alliance between Japan and the United States at the expense of the Sino-Japanese bilateral relationship, worsens China’s external security outlook and provides an excuse for the deployment of American armed forces to East Asia which help encircle China. As a result, China’s economic development is hampered and the stability of Communist Party rule may be threatened.

However, if the Sino-American relationship is studied at large, the impact of the islands dispute put in a global perspective and the rise of Japan’s nationalist right taken into account, the odds may not be in the United States’ favor at all.

The United States have so far played something of a doubled faced role in the islands dispute. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta was dispatched to China last year to declare that the United States would rather the two countries resolve the issue diplomatically. But the United States have also declared that the dispute is covered under their security treaty with the Japanese and expanded their military presence in East Asia to deter possible Chinese aggression. This prompted unexpected countermeasures from China’s side.

The American strategy seems to be one of carrots and sticks. On the one hand, it claims that it will not take sides and urges a peaceful resolution. The intent may be to suppress a Chinese belligerent attitude and give Japan some breathing space. On the other, the United States continue to increase their military deployments in the region and seek to contain China.

When China sends a coast guard ship into waters adjacent to the Diaoyu Islands and Japan is unable to respond, the United States send an aircraft carrier to the area and exercise naval tactics with the neighboring Philippines. The message to China is clear: stop using force to back up your territorial claims. Which only makes China question the United States’ motives more and respond with military actions of its own. It reads American interference as provocation.

China’s perception of American aims in East Asia is not unambiguous. There are those who favor a closer Sino-American relationship on the one extreme with others suspecting a plot to connive China and encircle it on the other. The United States’ two faced strategy in the Diaoyu Islands dispute hasn’t improved the former’s credibility in China. Anti-American sentiments are on the rise.

Even if the present American strategy in the dispute between China and Japan serves its interests in the short term, the mistrust it generates in China negatively affects the prospects for a peaceful and stable Sino-American relationship in the long term.

The United States are tied to their security obligations to Japan and for the sake of its larger Pacific strategy, cannot afford to renegade on those obligations without jeopardizing the trust of other allies in the region. Nor can it tolerate Chinese posturing in maritime disputes if it is to prevent the country from emerging as a regional hegemon in East Asia able to challenge the American position.

The Japanese right is aware of both imperatives and welcomes the increased American engagement. While the return to power of more conservative forces in Japan should help facilitate the American “pivot” to the region, it can backfire when Japanese nationalists, emboldened by America’s treaty support, are willing to risk confrontation and confront China.

The best strategy in the Diaoyu Islands dispute for now is to prevent escalation. The stalemate has already affected the economic relationship between China and Japan, however. As the second- and third largest economies in the world, a deterioration in relations between them could have global repercussions. The yet lackluster American recovery could be impacted. This bilateral rivalry is turning into a three cornered fight. Who will be the ultimate benefactor, if there is one, remains to be seen.

This article was published as the winning entry in an internship competition at Wikistrat, the world’s first massively multiplayer online consultancy.

Comments

  1. As a younger generation Chinese, I will refuse to participate in a war started by the ancient politicans who should have retired long ago. I say the military stay put and let those old crones just confront each other and be done with it. Simple message: if hot heads like Ishihara, Abe want to fight it out, just leave both countries out of it. Dont try to ruin the future that belongs to the younger generations.

  2. I believe this article is misleading with respect to Chinese intentions. China is look back on its historical past and triumphs, while applying its new found military power that Peace since 1945 has allowed it to acquire. In mankind’s history, nations come, and nations go. Boundaries change ever so often with the victors writing history as they saw it. This does not mean that just because China had a claim in the 1300’s that this boundary claim is valid in the 21st Century. Otherwise, the Great Wall of China would become China’s northern border.

    At this moment in time, China is attempting to extend it sea boundaries at the expense of all nations that border the South China Sea, which is making all of the nations uncomfortable because China is attempting to seize what is not China’s to seize. The bottom line is that the United States has treaties with Taiwan, Japan, and its naturally ally, the Philippines which used to be American territory.

    Japan is not a natural ally to the United States like the Philippines is, but rather is in an alliance based upon the outcome of World War 2 that decreed that the United States defend this World War 2 “rouge nation” as part of their surrender terms.

    In effect, with China fully aware of this defense treaty and fully aware that the United States returned jurisdiction of these islands after World War 2 is literally attempting to attack the United States by proxy – ie: the use of a third nation – either Japan or the Philippines. China must feel that it can take on the United States and prevail at this time.

    China should heed my warning as an American veteran, who has met Communist Chinese back in the early 1970’s and envisioned this day of confrontation. Don’t do it – because your nation is making the biggest mistake of its history to take on the United States military and its alliance. May you hear my words as if the sound of thunder in the sky and know the power of the word called, Peace.